CompmanJX3's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.59
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when CompmanJX3 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will the average length of a 9-inning Major League Baseball game be less than 2:45 during the 2023 regular season?YESṀ20
- Will this trial find that paying people to lose weight results in more weight loss than usual care?YESṀ10
- Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' (2023) gross more than $400 million domestically before 2024?YESṀ10
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%