Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump makes a public statement in the next 30 days admonishing (criticizing or expressing disapproval of) Poland or its Prime Minister Donald Tusk for opening an investigation into the Epstein files. The statement must be made by Trump himself via social media, press conference, interview, or official communication. Resolution is based on the plain language meaning of "admonish" - Trump must explicitly criticize or disapprove of Poland's investigative actions.

If Trump does not make such a statement, or if his statements are neutral or supportive of Poland's investigation, the market resolves NO.

Background

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on February 3, 2026 that Poland will establish an analytical group and possibly launch an investigation into the Epstein files. The investigation will determine if there are any aspects of Epstein's activities relating to Poland that require investigation, including whether any Polish girls or women were harmed by him. Tusk's team will also look into claims that Epstein could have been involved with or used by Russian intelligence.