118
1.4k
1.8k
Dec 31
11%
chance

This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.

I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.

YES if not nominated

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Proposed market: will Trump lose the election by 10M votes and still win the election?

predicts YES

@BrunoParga This is entirely possible.

predicts NO

@BTE Would you like to bet?

@BTE I knoooow 😭

predicts YES

@SemioticRivalry I may be down for a bet that Trump will lose by 10mm votes. He has done less than nothing to win over new voters. He got throttled by 6.5mm as the incumbent who at the time was basically sending everyone in the country pandemic cash. I feel confident his incompetence and really lack of interest in doing the actual job of being president is going to make it a bloodbath. I think he could lose 35-40 states too. Easily. Goldwater style. What kind of bet did you have in mind?

predicts YES

He lost by 6.4 million AS THE INCUMBENT.

predicts NO

@BTE it's not obvious that incumbency is an advantage anymore

predicts YES

@SemioticRivalry It’s unclear what you mean? The evidence is still fairly overwhelming. The free media coverage of your every action alone is obviously an advantage. For Trump that wasn’t helpful because he was barely even taking the job seriously and it showed.

predicts NO

@BTE When the entire media ecosystem is based on negative polarization, perhaps it is bad to be getting all the attention.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

God I hope I'm wrong

bought Ṁ10 of NO

the 2024 election is going to singlehandedly make @BTE a mana billionaire

predicts NO

@AndrewG or ragequit

predicts YES

@NicoDelon Ragequit? Is that French? 😂😂

predicts YES

@AndrewG It’s gonna be a direct transfer of wealth from Trump to BTE. I am gonna own Mar-a-Lago when it’s all said and done and my plan is to turn it into both a drag club and planned parenthood.

predicts NO

bte put more orders up for yes around 48-55?

predicts YES

@jacksonpolack As soon as my loans come in tonight I am gonna gobble those up.

bought Ṁ85 of NO

I’m a strong No on this question. Live-interview surveys tend to be the highest quality (though that appears to be because online surveys often have amateurish methodologies or no prior track record rather than inherent to the mode), and they generally have the popular vote at a dead heat. While I expect Biden’s position to improve somewhat, the notion that he’ll win in a landslide is just completely unsupported by the information we have. https://twitter.com/NayibLiberalism/status/1698184695350165654

predicts NO

@CanOfBeans Just to clarify, the coloration refers to apparent Electoral College edge. My perspective is pretty pessimistic, because if the election was held tomorrow I think Trump would be at least a modest favorite — a terrifying prospective for most Democratic voters, myself included.

predicts YES

@CanOfBeans He lost by 5 million votes AS THE INCUMBENT PRESIDENT. He is now running against the incumbent on the platform of decimating the government on a personal vendetta. Like what a joke. He is gonna do a Barry Goldwater dude. He might not even be on the ballot in a bunch of blue states with huge populations idk where the optimism is coming from.

predicts NO

@BTE I agree that the fundamentals (however roughly defined) when you look only at Trump are very bullish for Biden, but that’s the thing — you can’t look only at Trump. The next election, as always, will be a choice between two candidates, and Biden’s low-50s favorable rating on Election Day 2020 is now at a low-40s approval rating.

I think that’s why the polls are the way they are, and will be unless something changes: swing voters are choosing between two options they see as very bad, and Biden needs to win them by a large margin to win the Electoral College (let alone the popular vote by 10 million).

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@CanOfBeans Fuck the polls dude. Trump is going to have a televised trial sitting next to Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell. He won’t be able to campaign after his trials start in February. He can’t avoid being present every day. How the fuck does he attract new voters and not lose old ones?? Polls have never been more irrelevant than they are today. And this question is only about popular vote.

predicts NO

@BTE Hah, I wish I had your confidence! I hope you’re right — we’re not even betting real money here, so it’s not like Trump winning (which basically guarantees a No outcome in this market) would be some sort of silver lining for me.

Regarding the question of how he attracts new voters, my view is that he doesn’t, not with anything he does. It’s Biden’s unpopularity — if it doesn’t change — that would drive nose-holding voters back to Trump.

predicts YES

@CanOfBeans I would expect Biden's position to get worse this time. A big reason Biden avoided a backlash on his corruption allegations was because many senior officials within the FBI and CIA said that the Hunter Biden laptop story was "Russian disinformation". Now we know that this claim itself was disinformation designed to help Biden and probably even influenced the results of last elections.

I think many independent voters can see through this (and all the politically motivated indictments) that the Democratic Party is turning into what they accused Trump of being - authoritarian and corrupt.

predicts NO

@Akzzz123 I mostly disagree, but it’s certainly intriguing to see such divergent predictions in response to my post. @BTE is convinced President Biden will hurdle the 10 million margin threshold easily, while you (if I’m not mistaken) think he’s likely to lose the popular vote.

predicts YES

@Akzzz123 Talking about Hunter Biden at all is disinformation. Not to mention callous and hypocritical. If you really care about Hunter Biden, you should be so fucking outraged by Jared, Ivanka, Eric and Donald Jr you completely forget the drug addict son of the president who watched his mother, sister and brother all die tragically, in the case of the former two he and his brother were there alone without their father. If Hunter

Biden relapses and hurts himself seriously or worse will people still be talking about his fucking laptop? And for that matter, if you think Hunter Biden has any influence over his father whatsoever you I guess you must also assume Trump does what his kids ask of him too, so when they were making $100mm/year while working in the West Wing is actually the biggest scandal of all Trump’s blemishes on the history of this country??

predicts NO

@BTE Tu quoque fallacy. Plus, the idea that of all people we’re not talking about Trump and his family’s mischiefs enough defies belief. TDS is a hell of a drug.

predicts NO

@BTE In 2020, Trump won the second largest number of votes ever, second only to Biden who beat him. He’d already been impeached once.

predicts YES

@NicoDelon TDS is an extremely lazy ad hominem argument. My comment was in the context of whether or not “corruption” will be an issue that adds or subtracts from the 7mm vote difference from 2020. Are you here to defend Donald Trump or debate whether or not he will lose by 10 million votes? I am only really interested in the latter, so tell me why corruption is a net positive issue for Trump?

The vibe I am getting from you is inspiring me to buy reluctantly NO on /NicoDelon/in-a-year-will-i-think-manifold-has

predicts YES

@NicoDelon Oh nice I didn’t see this second comment because I was so blindsided by the first one. Fair point. But is that an argument for Trump closing the gap?? Or just an excuse for why he got crushed?

predicts NO

@BTE I’m just literally replying to your ode to Hunter.

@CanOfBeans I am not saying Biden will lose the popular vote. What I am trying to say is that the reasons why Biden had a good lead in 2020 no longer hold, so I wouldn't expect Biden to get an even bigger lead this time.

@BTE Sadly, Trump's behavior doesn't excuse Biden's behavior. Having said that, I don't think the evidence around the Trump family's corruption is as blatant as that around the Bidens. You are free to throw around big numbers but that doesn't take into account the fact that Trump's family were already billionaires before he became the President.

On the other hand, it's pretty clear to me that the Burisma deals were a quid pro quo to help the company Joe Biden's son was getting paid millions by. Before you claim he was being paid for "illusion of access" to the VP, the firing of the prosecutor who was investigating Burisma under direct pressure from Joe Biden shows this was not just an illusion.

But I am sure it was just a loving gesture by a Dad looking out for the wellbeing of his son who's had a tragic life..

predicts YES

@Akzzz123 I don’t see any reason to think Joe Biden has ever made his family his top priority. It was always actually his brother and look alike who grifted on the family name and roped Hunter in with him. And I also don’t understand why it even makes sense. Was it hidden that Hunter Biden was on the board? Conflicts of interest are issues that need to be declared and it’s only when hidden that they become evidence of corruption. At this time Biden wanted to be president still so it’s absurd to say there was a quid pro quo with a known conflict of interest. If you can show me they purposely hid Hunter’s role then I will say tell me more otherwise you are just regurgitating talking points from Fox or whatever. Nothing personal I just get fired up about this topic!! I appreciate you and enjoy the exchange very much! I just want to hear at least one corrupt thing about Biden before I concede an inch.

What is it about being Billionaires that makes it better exactly?? Of anything that just means they have significantly greater capacity to monetize access. SIGNIFICANTLY MORE. They owned the fucking hotel in DC where all the foreign diplomats would stay to curry favor for fucks sake.

@BTE

If Donald Trump's son was on the board of a company and got millions of dollars despite having no competence in that field and at the same time if Donald Trump pressured Ukraine to fire the prosecutor investigating the company his son was on the board of, what would your reaction be? Would you give Trump a pass for that?

predicts YES

@Akzzz123 Isn’t that already the case? I believe he has two sons in precisely such a position at a company with their name on the building no less.

And you didn’t even ask me what I think Biden should do! I think Hunter should be the main reason Biden drops out and let’s Newsom and Harris fight it out for the nomination and save his son what will undoubtedly be a difficult experience now that he doesn’t have anything special to offer the country other than a very familiar face. So I am cutting Biden no breaks, I am saying Hunter Biden is totally fucking irrelevant and if he was making money because his dad is important yeah that’s pretty much the most American fucking thing I can think of. :

It’s funny because my original comment about Trump’s kids making lots of money while working in government wasn’t to argue they are worse or even wrong. It was to point out that it’s a bogus accusation period.

@BTE Did Trump pressure a Government to fire the prosecutor investigating the company paying his son millions?

predicts YES

@Akzzz123 Is that a joke?!?! Did you already forget that Trump was impeached the first time for refusing to release already approved and paid for military aid to Ukraine unless (checks notes👀) they investigated Biden for him?!?!!? You’re truly hilarious this morning my friend.

@BTE What you have replied is not the same as what I asked.

Did Trump pressure a Government to fire the prosecutor investigating the company paying his son millions?

Please feel free to continue to parade your TDS.

predicts YES

@Akzzz123 Why is that an interesting question? Did Joe Biden start an insurrection while throwing a temper tantrum after losing reelection? I never thought to raise that question but maybe I should just say that over and over since you like repetition.

Seriously, show me where I defended Biden?

But also who fucking cares?? You mean to tell me after a lifetime of giving very few shits about Hunter Biden was willing to literally risk his chance of ever being president to make (checks notes again👀) Hunter rich?? If anyone was being sketchy it was Hunter not his father and again why are you fixated on him?

TDS is absolutely a compliment. Thank you.

predicts NO

@Akzzz123 The answer to your question is yes. This investigation:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64257735

The company employs Eric Trump. Donald Trump attempted to get the prosecutor fired by pressuring the govt.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall These are not remotely comparable though.

  • The prosecution is politically motivated against Trump as further evidenced by the recent indictments by the same prosecutors.

  • Trump's son wasn't employed by the company solely to get the prosecutor off the back.

  • The prosecutor was not fired unlike with Joe Biden.

predicts NO

@Akzzz123 I'm just answering questions.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@BTE Again, I agree with much of what you say, but accusing others of being callous and cruel for bringing up Hunter and then proceeding to link to the market you created to bet on whether he’ll have a relapse while Biden is in office looks extremely tone-deaf.

predicts YES

@CanOfBeans Tone deaf?? Please explain because that makes no sense to me. I made that market in response to the fact that people seem to think Hunter is some super corrupt dude implicating his father in super corrupt dealings when the obvious reality is a bunch of assholes are taking the normal behavior of a drug addict and spinning it into a truly tone deaf attack on his father simply by association and non-sketchy, long disclosed conflicts.

Also, did you know the VP has literal blanket immunity just like they president when acting in their official capacity for this exact reason, to prevent them from doing the thing in the best interests of the country because of a perceived or real conflict of interest?? The only person who even could be doing anything shady or illegal in the Ukraine situation referenced above is Hunter. Joe was acting as the president’s proxy so like what is the big clever reveal so many seem to think the country was denied by the suppression of Hunter’s laptop story???

predicts NO

@BTE I think they all deserve a Nobel Peace Prize for being such good boys.

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