In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?
In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?
8
435Ṁ2932050
1D
1W
1M
ALL
39%
2050
26%
2040
21%
2035
17%
2030
Currently the majority of hydrogen available is produced through some form of hydrocarbon decomposition. A reverse process however - for example catalytic conversion of hydrogen and CO2 into methane - is also possible and would create a renewable source of hydrocarbons, which will be increasingly valuable as fossil fuels become more expensive.
Resolves YES if in a given year the mass of hydrogen used up in such processes exceeds the mass derived from hydrocarbons.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.