Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes at or above 50,000 on any trading day on or before March 31, 2026. The market resolves NO if the index closes below 50,000 on the final trading day of Q1 2026 (March 31, 2026).

Resolution will be verified using official closing prices from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) or Yahoo Finance.

Background

The Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved a historic milestone on January 6, 2026, as it surged past the 49,000 mark for the first time in its 130-year history. As of January 6, 2026, the index closed at 49,462.08. The Dow returned 12.67% in 2025. Analysts believe the current move could carry the index toward the psychological 50,000 threshold by the end of the first quarter.

Considerations

The current rally is being driven by a robust rotation into industrial, financial, and energy titans, signaling a "valuation catch-up" in sectors that underperformed tech-heavy indices in the early 2020s. Any sign of a slowdown in consumer spending or a resurgence in inflation could trigger a swift retreat to the 45,000 support zone.