Chuckles's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.84
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Chuckles bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
50%
- If Donald Trump is indicted in Fulton County, will his supporters storm any Georgia government facility within a week?NOṀ25
- Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?NOṀ10
- 5) Search will change more in 2023 than it has since Google went mainstream in the early 2000s.YESṀ10
60%
70%
80%
90%