Will (consecutive * same) for yes positions at close exceed the same calculation for no positions?
resolved Jun 6

It is the maximum consecutive streak on each side and the maximum number of accounts with the same number of mana positions for each side.

So if the yes positions are 6, 7, 7, 7, 8 and the no positions are 3, 4, 5, 10, 10, 10 then both of these score 3*3=9 and because this is a tie it resolves no.

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ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

Looks like 9:1 to yes. I will resolve it shortly if there are no objections.

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randlessold Ṁ13 of YES

Any one of 4 people could defect to no and cause a no resolution. Also more to be made from betting no. First to jump may well get better terms but perhaps doing it early opens them up to risk of it swinging again. So this possibly suggest switching to no in last few seconds?

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randlesbought Ṁ1 of NO

Risk free mana: For anyone at close having a position of spending 1 mana for a position of 1, 2 or 3 shares on no, if they don't profit from that position I will put a 3 manalink on one of their resolved markets and tag them.

I reserve the right to withdraw this offer if someone offers more for yes positions. (If anyone has taken up a position before I withdraw this offer then I will still honour it.)

1 reply
ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randlespredicted NO


Sorry withdrawing this offer now

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

@589b Message changed because your 20 is doing something now. 2*2 for yes 1*1 for no 51%

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randlespredicted YES

Hmm, not popular still listed. I thought lots of people would pile on to 5 yes. Same being less subject to last minute changes than a long consecutive streak.

3 replies
cloe avatar
cloebought Ṁ15 of NO

@ChristopherRandles imo it's still very reliant on other holders (especially for large chains?)

cloe avatar
cloepredicted NO

@ChristopherRandles also, what happens if the positions are like: 3, 3, 4, 4, 5?

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randlespredicted YES

@cloe With 3 3 4 4 5 the longest chain is 3 and the max same is 2 so the calculation is 6, Yes a long chain is vulnerable but lots on the same number is less vulnerable.

Another thing is a large bet moves the % chance quite a bit. with % chance down to 40% more people may see the advantage of small bets on yes.