It almost seems like the regular season is a formality with the same 8 teams heavily favored to make the playoffs again.

Expected Win Totals (% chance of making playoffs):

Celtics: 58.5 (~100%)

Knicks: 54.5 (~97%)

Sixers: 52.5 (~96%)

Bucks: 50.5 (~93%)

Magic: 48.5 (~86%)

Cavs: 48.5 (~91%)

Pacers: 47.5 (~86%)

Heat: 44.5 (~77.5%)

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Hawks: 36.5

Raptors: 30.5

Hornets: 29.5

Bulls: 27.5

Pistons: 25.5

Wizards: 20.5

Nets: 18.5

Based off these odds, we expect ~7.25 of the 8 teams to make the playoffs again in 2025, implying an least 25% chance all 8 teams make the playoffs.

Assuming the number of these 8 teams that miss the playoffs is roughly Poisson, then we expect a 47% chance it's a repeat of 2024.

A potential upper bound (since betting markets allow these odds to be parlayed as if they were independent) can be obtained by assuming independence and multiply which yields 45%