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MANIFOLD
Number of Upsets in First Round of 2026 NBA Playoffs
3
Ṁ100Ṁ96
May 5
15%
0
51%
1
30%
2
4%
3+

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/48477478/2026-nba-playoff-expert-picks-play-first-round-matchups

ESPN experts are unanimous for 6 of the 8 series and other 2 with 15-1 are West 3 vs 6 (Nuggets 15, Wolves 1) and West 4 vs 5 (Rockets 15, Lakers 1)

Resolves to number of upsets:

  • Suns (almost no chance <5%)

  • Blazers (~10%)

  • Wolves (~15-20%)

  • Lakers (~30%)

  • Magic (~15-20%)

  • Sixers (<10%)

  • Hawks (~20%)

  • Raptors (~10-15%)

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