Definition of Outcome: The market will resolve as “Yes” if Shein successfully completes its Initial Public Offering (IPO) and its shares are first available for public trading on any recognized stock exchange within the calendar year 2024, Eastern Time (ET).

Verification Sources: The outcome will be determined based on reports from one or more of the following trusted sources:

  1. Major financial news outlets: Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters.

  2. The official website or press release page of the stock exchange where Shein is listing.

  3. Shein's official website or press releases.

  4. Official regulatory filings related to Shein's IPO.

Tiebreakers and Ambiguities:

  1. In case of discrepancies between the aforementioned sources, the majority consensus among them will be taken as the final verdict.

  2. If there is an equal split in sources (e.g., two sources state one date and two sources state another), the regulatory filing or the official announcement from Shein will take precedence.

  3. All dates will be verified based on Eastern Time (ET), regardless of the location of the IPO or the primary location of the news source.

Special Scenarios:

  1. If Shein's IPO is announced for 2024 but gets postponed to a later year, the market will resolve as "No."

  2. If Shein announces a merger with another company resulting in an indirect public listing, this will not count as an IPO, and the market will resolve as "No."

  3. Direct listings, if Shein opts for this route, will be considered as an IPO for the purpose of this market.

Resolution Timeframe: The market will resolve within seven days after December 31, 2024, ET. This provides ample time to verify the IPO status of Shein and ensures there are no last-minute changes or announcements in the final days of 2024.

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predicts NO

Shein’s mega-IPO plan could unravel as scrutiny intensifies from all sides (Source: Snacks-Digestible Financial News by Robinhood)

predicts NO

Shein mega-IPO in danger: Here’s what you need to know

CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa reports on a potential setback to Shein’s IPO. (01/17/2024)