Carstival 2024 Prop Bets
Carstival 2024 Prop Bets
8
230Ṁ666resolved Jun 30
Resolved
YESWill anyone get handcuffed?
Resolved
YESWill Carson receive a lap dance?
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YESWill we play Blood On the Clock Tower?
Resolved
YESWill Carson receive a prank gift?
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YESWill "Hot Stacks" be called >10x throughout?
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NOWill anyone cross streams?
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NOWill we play the Trolly Problem Game?
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NOWill we play Hot Seat?
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NODongs measured
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NOWill anyone drink urine?
Resolved
NOWill we visit any hot springs?
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NOWill there be >10 hot tub sessions
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NODong kiss
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NOWill anyone get a tattoo?
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NOWill Carson cry from the roasting?
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NOWill Vadim mention that he went to Harvard Medical School?
Resolved
NOWill Carson cry (in a good way) from the toasting?
Carstival 2024 (my bachelor party) taking place on weekend of June 21. This market is for prop bets about the event! Add anything you think would be:
- Fun to predict, might or might not happen
- Respects people's privacy (any personal questions that are too spicy I reserve the right to utilize a random number generator to resolve)
Feel free to add questions even (especially) if you are not attending!
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ33 | |
| 2 | Ṁ21 | |
| 3 | Ṁ10 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 |
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.