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MANIFOLD
Will I decide to return to university, with the intention of completing my undergraduate degree?
7
Ṁ1.1kṀ224
2030
24%
chance

Resolves no if I reach a firm internal long term decision to abandon higher education. (As per UChicago policy I can be on a leave of absence indefinitely, such that it is unlikely I will officially “drop out”)

Resolves yes if i decide to return to UChicago before 2028 with the intention of completing my undergraduate degree

Note: the question was originally phrased as will I complete my undergraduate degree; upon further reflection I decided it is more accurate to formulate as whether I’d return to school with the intention to complete my degree, as it seems more tractable than having to adjust for the probability I graduate | conditional I decide to return

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