Infrastructure hacking linked to TETRA vulnerability leads to loss of life (before 2026)
2
85
90
2026
38%
chance

Resolves Yes, if all of the following occur:

  • An infrastructure, in general: grid, train network, pipeline, dam, drawbridge machinery, harbor ...

  • is cyber attacked: attack involving computers, computer network, SCADA controller, ... (A human element in the chain is allowed as long as computer are involved principally)

  • This attack is directly responsible for loss of at least 1 life: someone is confirmed to have died as a consequence of that attack.

  • It is revealed that a necessary part of the attack involved TETRA radio (Terrestrial Trunked Radio), in a non-trivial way.

  • This is reported about in widely-regarded-as-reliable media: managing resolution risk, resolves only based on credible information.

See also: TETRA (Terrestrial Trunked Radio) on Wikipedia | Recent talk on TETRA encryption

In case of ambiguity, might discuss in the comment, close trading and even resolve N/A. Welcoming comments/suggestions on resolution criteria if made well in advance of the resolving event.

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