Definitions
month means the month in San Francisco as defined by https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/usa/san-francisco at the moment of reveal
reveal means releasing the product's price in the US. (e.g. releasing a photo of the product does not count) The release must be official. (e.g. a leak does not count)
new iPad means a previously unavailable product with the word "iPad" in the name that has a touchscreen larger than the Apple iPhone 13 Pro in inches diagonally. This product must differ from existing products in more than one property. (e.g. a new color for an existing iPad does not count)
Arbitrage opportunity with this market (which should roughly equal the inverse of “May“ here, instead of being higher): https://manifold.markets/RachelFreedman/will-apple-release-a-new-ipad-by-ma?r=Sm9uYXRoYW5NYW5uaGFydA