Caleb Parikh's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.21
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Caleb Parikh bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?YESṀ500
- Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?NOṀ250
- By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?YESṀ200
80%
- Will 80k stop listing OpenAI capabilities roles on their jobs board by end of 2022?NOṀ150
- Will I think running the Redwood Research Mechanistic Interpretability Experiment (REMIX) was +EV on March 1st 2023?YESṀ100
- Will a university-level student be punished for using ChatGPT or another LLM I to write a school paper by April 1st 2023?YESṀ100
90%
95%
97%