Cadence's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.35
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Cadence bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will there be >=84,800 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of Jan 10 2023?NOṀ50
- Will I believe that I actually made M$212 profit on a market (as it claims), instead of the M$206 that I calculated, by end of tomorrow?NOṀ10
- Will a university-level student be punished for using ChatGPT or another LLM I to write a school paper by Jan 15th 2023?YESṀ10
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Did I actually profit on the 15-ppl-in-today's-call market?NOṀ100
- I've baked a cake using a subset of the given ingredients (read description). Resolves YES if someone guesses which in the comments.YESṀ100
- I've baked a cake using a subset of the given ingredients (read description). Resolves YES if someone guesses which in the comments.YESṀ100
95%