From now, will Google announce layoffs of >=0.5% of workers before the end of 2023?
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Jun 1
16%
chance

Note that start date is 2023-01-24, after the first layoffs occurred on 2023-01-20.

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predicts YES

I don't know if we have enough information to resolve this? Will wait longer but right now we don't know exactly how many workers were affected by the ones already announced

predicts NO

@Cactus You said that those were not included, and the title refers to whether google will "announce" layoffs. Any announcement is public, so if it's announcements that resolution depends on, only public statements should matter, right?

predicts YES

@chrisjbillington I'm not sure that I agree that announcements are always public. Companies announce things to suborganizations all the time and still use the word "announcement". While I originally did not want to count the others after Jan 20, in the comments of this other market From now, will Google announce layoffs of another batch of workers before the end of 2023? | Manifold, I also resolved to YES earlier after some discussion and a poll. The main problem is we have no idea how many layoffs were actually conducted, and there were also (from what I hear) many gray area re-orgs within the company that forced people out of roles.

sold Ṁ374 of NO

@Cactus Normally markets have to decide how to resolve on public information (because there isn't any other kind of information market creators usually have access to), so that's why they specify "announcements", and mean public ones. Usually it's a case of "if we don't hear about it, resolves NO at EOY" or similar. There's not really any other way to proceed.

I'm pretty confused about counting layoffs from before market creation, given you explicitly said you weren't including them. Regardless of how many there are, you said they didn't count.

I'm left with little idea what you're going for in this market either in spirit or by letter, so I guess I'll just sell my stake.

predicts YES

@chrisjbillington Wasn't referring to the ones before the market creation. I am talking about the small batches of job losses afterward. Ones before market creation don't count.

@Cactus OK, fair enough, I misunderstood.

predicts YES

@chrisjbillington The issue also is that we are actually hearing about them, even if they aren't "public" announcements. like the assistant layoffs from earlier this year, when the other market resolved YES. We heard from the news that it happened, and google made an announcement, but only to those in the affected org rather than to everyone.