Will Kakhovka be liberated by Ukraine before the end of June?
28
530Ṁ8575
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia loses control of Nova Kakhovka, Kakhovka or Malokakhovka by 30 June, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

If one of these areas is no longer shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded red for the entire time period, the market resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through June 30.

Ukraine-Russia war
Ukraine
Ukraine Counteroffensive
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predictedNO

What do you mean by "one of these areas"? What areas should no longer be shaded red?

predictedYES

@42irrationalist anywhere above the red line and below the water in the image. So roughly Nova Kakhovka, Kakhovka or Malokakhovka.

predictedNO

@CM would a single point be enough or a significant area needed for a YES resolution?

How does the market resolve if an area is partially liberated?

YES. Retired US general thinks a Ukrainian offensive if most likely to come across the Dnipro, which if successful would probably involve the liberation of Kakhovka.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTdOdhKdtBU

Retired General Breaks Down Four Ukrainian Counteroffensive Scenarios | WSJ
Ukraine is on the brink of launching its counteroffensive against Russia. Russia now occupies 17% of Ukrainian territory, a stretch of landmass roughly equiv…

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