Will Kakhovka be liberated by Ukraine before the end of June?
resolved Jul 1

Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia loses control of Nova Kakhovka, Kakhovka or Malokakhovka by 30 June, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

If one of these areas is no longer shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded red for the entire time period, the market resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through June 30.

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42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistpredicted NO

What do you mean by "one of these areas"? What areas should no longer be shaded red?

CM avatar
CMpredicted YES

@42irrationalist anywhere above the red line and below the water in the image. So roughly Nova Kakhovka, Kakhovka or Malokakhovka.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistpredicted NO

@CM would a single point be enough or a significant area needed for a YES resolution?

How does the market resolve if an area is partially liberated?