As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Mobile technologies to encourage women to attend antenatal clinics and/or give birth at a health care facility" as a top Mass Media intervention?
Idea overview
Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, only about 55% of women make the recommended 4+ antenatal care visits, and only 60% give birth at a health care facility. This organization would encourage greater health care utilization and achieve lower maternal and neonatal mortality by scaling up evidence-based mHealth interventions, such as one-way text messages or two-way SMS/WhatsApp communications. These messages would aim to address common concerns about professional health care, as well as reminding women not to miss their appointments.
Mass media interventions
By ‘mass media’ intervention we refer to social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media, aiming to improve human well-being. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise.
About the contest
In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected
You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose.
You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision.
For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ293 | |
| 2 | Ṁ216 | |
| 3 | Ṁ74 | |
| 4 | Ṁ36 | |
| 5 | Ṁ26 |
This is a really solid idea that seems only a bit less likely than the market is predicting. Direct communication lines are likely to be fairly effective, and the interventions themselves are likely to be fairly simple in nature, increasing tractability. However, other ideas listed seem solid enough that the probability seems a bit too high.
At least this seems solidly within the kinds of things that CE has practice getting charities to do in the past (Family Empowerment Media excepted)- it’s discrete and has some clear measurable goals. It already exists in Rwanda (well, sort of from what I can tell) and has been well tested elsewhere. One issue is that it relies on a cofounder knowing how to communicate these concerns to the target audience, and I’m not entirely sure how easy it would be to find such a person.
In terms of giving birth at a healthcare facility, you'd have to convince many mothers to be closer before they even go into labor:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_by_sovereign_state
https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1059-1
which feels like a much more temporary instance of:
https://manifold.markets/CE/3-encouraging-internal-ruralurban-m
GPT-4 ranked this #2 most likely to be selected of the 10