Will the five most valuable members of the S&P 500 be more than 21% of the index's value in 2025?
closes 2025

Right now, the five biggest companies in the S&P 500, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Alphabet (both share classes) are 21.0% of the value of the S&P. Usually, the top-five share is lower. But it's possible that returns to scale are higher than they used to be, and that there's a secular trend towards larger companies.

For the purpose of this question, I'd treat multiple classes of stock as representing the same company (and, in the edge case where the biggest company has tracking stock, it's still going to count as one company). But spinoffs would not count, e.g. if Amazon spins off AWS, we would not add the value of the two surviving companies.

This question is not asking if today's top five will collectively be 21.0% of the market, just if the top five will have that share.

Sort by:
JustNo avatar
JustNobought Ṁ200 of YES

Just checking my understanding of "in 2025" - this means that the market will resolve yes if, at any point in the year, the top five biggest companies (total stock evaluation for this ranking?) equal 25% or more of the value of the S&P 500 - yes?

I'm assuming that if a company is broken into separate companies such that they are listed as separate stocks (presumably due to antitrust action), then they would treated as separate companies for the purposes of this market? I ask, because that's the only scenario where I imagine this market resolving NO.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray

Currently 27.5%

PatMyron avatar
Pat Myron (edited)

historical graph (note y-axis is shifted)

Lorxus avatar
Lorxus Mathfoxbought Ṁ100 of NO

https://www.investopedia.com/top-10-s-and-p-500-stocks-by-index-weight-4843111 looks to be a fairly reputable source on this that keeps itself up to date.

jfjurchen avatar
J. F. Jurchenbought Ṁ10 of NO

@ByrneHobart Does 21.00001% count as YES? What about 20.999% (rounds to 21%)?

ByrneHobart avatar
Byrne Hobartis predicting YES at 60%

@jfjurchen 20.95% or above will qualify, as the question text uses 21.0% rather than the rounded number.

SG avatar
S Gis predicting YES at 60%

Showcasing this market because it's a good way to operationalize the question of increasing economic concentration.

puffymist avatar

Yeah, the 5-firm concentration ratio is commonly used for measuring market competition

Related markets

31. Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?80%
Will the S&P 500 "Information Technology" sector exceed 30% by 2025?44%
Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2024?69%
Will the S&P 500 have a positive annual return for the year 2023?79%
Will S&P 500 increase in 2024?79%
Will S&P 500 increase overall in 2023?79%
Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033?55%
Will S&P 500 increase in June 2023?70%
Will the S&P500 grow faster than inflation between 2023-2025?74%
Will the S&P 500 close at an all time high in 2023?20%
32. Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2023?31%
What will the S&P 500 price be on July 1, 2023?4192
Will Congressional stock trades outperform the S&P 500 by more than 10 percentage points in 2023?70%
Will the S&P 500 surpass it's intraday all-time high of 4,818.62 before 2024?28%
Will there be a >8.93% one day drop in the S&P 500 during 2023?8%
Will S&P 500 increase in Q2 2023?83%
Will the S&P 500 close above 4000 at the end of 2023?84%
Will the S&P 500 index close both 10% above and 10% below 2022 closing price in 2023?21%
Will Microsoft leave the S&P 500?8%
Will Apple leave the S&P 500?7%