Will the five most valuable members of the S&P 500 be more than 21% of the index's value in 2025?
13k
2025
76%
chance

Right now, the five biggest companies in the S&P 500, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Alphabet (both share classes) are 21.0% of the value of the S&P. Usually, the top-five share is lower. But it's possible that returns to scale are higher than they used to be, and that there's a secular trend towards larger companies.

For the purpose of this question, I'd treat multiple classes of stock as representing the same company (and, in the edge case where the biggest company has tracking stock, it's still going to count as one company). But spinoffs would not count, e.g. if Amazon spins off AWS, we would not add the value of the two surviving companies.

This question is not asking if today's top five will collectively be 21.0% of the market, just if the top five will have that share.

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predicts YES

Currently they’re worth 26.9% of the total value as far as I can tell

bought Ṁ100 of NO

At any time in 2025?

predicts YES

@ChadwickMiller At the beginning of 2025. i.e. first trading day

bought Ṁ200 of YES

Just checking my understanding of "in 2025" - this means that the market will resolve yes if, at any point in the year, the top five biggest companies (total stock evaluation for this ranking?) equal 25% or more of the value of the S&P 500 - yes?

I'm assuming that if a company is broken into separate companies such that they are listed as separate stocks (presumably due to antitrust action), then they would treated as separate companies for the purposes of this market? I ask, because that's the only scenario where I imagine this market resolving NO.

Currently 27.5%

historical graph (note y-axis is shifted)

bought Ṁ100 of NO

https://www.investopedia.com/top-10-s-and-p-500-stocks-by-index-weight-4843111 looks to be a fairly reputable source on this that keeps itself up to date.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@ByrneHobart Does 21.00001% count as YES? What about 20.999% (rounds to 21%)?

predicts YES

@jfjurchen 20.95% or above will qualify, as the question text uses 21.0% rather than the rounded number.

predicts YES

Showcasing this market because it's a good way to operationalize the question of increasing economic concentration.

Yeah, the 5-firm concentration ratio is commonly used for measuring market competition