Will Donald Trump Create His Own Party for the 2024 Election?

Resolved "YES" If Trump either creates his own party or runs under an independent party.

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MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallpredicts NO

I updated the close date given the unanswered question from @JimHays and @EvanDaniel below (16 days). @ByZyGuy feel free to re-close if you intended it to close now.

EvanDaniel avatar

@ByZyGuy Is this supposed to be closed already? Or should it be left open until the election?

JimHays avatar
Jim Hayspredicts NO

Is this meant to have a close date in 2023 or 2024?

MaybeNotDepends avatar
MaybeNotDependssold Ṁ55 of NO

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The probability of him being named as a candidate for a party that he has no connection at all to - is much higher than him running as his own party.

na_pewno avatar
na pewnopredicts NO

@AaronKreider Can you expand on this? My intuition is that the probability of the former is close to zero - running as his own party seems like a way better choice.

MaybeNotDepends avatar

@na_pewno Bernie Sanders got a ton of write-ins in 2016 even though he wasn't running. I think parties can nominate whoever they want without their permission. I might be wrong. In which case my lesser argument is that Trump would more willingly agree to accept a nomination from a random party as an ego boost, than to actually organize his own party and lose bigly (and give the election to Biden on a platter).

MaybeNotDepends avatar

@AaronKreider The "If candidate x loses" will they create their own party is a common news story that journalists/speculators love to push. When is the last time this happened? 1972 (George Wallace, AIP)?

MaybeNotDepends avatar

@AaronKreider https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Wallace_1968_presidential_campaign
Even Wallace was honest enough to not run as one party in the primary and then switch to another in the general. He ran as a Democrat in 1964 and 1972 and as AIP in 1968.

MaybeNotDepends avatar

@AaronKreider https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Anderson 1980 went from Republican to independent. But he also got crushed in the general.

Gabrielle avatar

How would you resolve a situation where Trump runs as an independent but doesn't, strictly speaking, create a new party?

ByZyGuy avatar
AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartmanpredicts NO

@ByZyGuy I was wondering how this managed to stay at 17%. I have to say, that seems like a strange way to resolve the market in that case - you might want to add that to the market description.

ManifoldDream avatar

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