Resolved "YES" If Trump either creates his own party or runs under an independent party.
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1.00I updated the close date given the unanswered question from @JimHays and @EvanDaniel below (16 days). @ByZyGuy feel free to re-close if you intended it to close now.
@AaronKreider Can you expand on this? My intuition is that the probability of the former is close to zero - running as his own party seems like a way better choice.
@na_pewno Bernie Sanders got a ton of write-ins in 2016 even though he wasn't running. I think parties can nominate whoever they want without their permission. I might be wrong. In which case my lesser argument is that Trump would more willingly agree to accept a nomination from a random party as an ego boost, than to actually organize his own party and lose bigly (and give the election to Biden on a platter).
@AaronKreider The "If candidate x loses" will they create their own party is a common news story that journalists/speculators love to push. When is the last time this happened? 1972 (George Wallace, AIP)?
@AaronKreider https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Wallace_1968_presidential_campaign
Even Wallace was honest enough to not run as one party in the primary and then switch to another in the general. He ran as a Democrat in 1964 and 1972 and as AIP in 1968.
@AaronKreider https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Anderson 1980 went from Republican to independent. But he also got crushed in the general.
@ByZyGuy I was wondering how this managed to stay at 17%. I have to say, that seems like a strange way to resolve the market in that case - you might want to add that to the market description.
