I updated the close date given the unanswered question from @JimHays and @EvanDaniel below (16 days). @ByZyGuy feel free to re-close if you intended it to close now.

@ByZyGuy Is this supposed to be closed already? Or should it be left open until the election?

Is this meant to have a close date in 2023 or 2024?

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The probability of him being named as a candidate for a party that he has no connection at all to - is much higher than him running as his own party.

@AaronKreider Can you expand on this? My intuition is that the probability of the former is close to zero - running as his own party seems like a way better choice.

@na_pewno Bernie Sanders got a ton of write-ins in 2016 even though he wasn't running. I think parties can nominate whoever they want without their permission. I might be wrong. In which case my lesser argument is that Trump would more willingly agree to accept a nomination from a random party as an ego boost, than to actually organize his own party and lose bigly (and give the election to Biden on a platter).

@AaronKreider The "If candidate x loses" will they create their own party is a common news story that journalists/speculators love to push. When is the last time this happened? 1972 (George Wallace, AIP)?

@AaronKreider https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Wallace_1968_presidential_campaign
Even Wallace was honest enough to not run as one party in the primary and then switch to another in the general. He ran as a Democrat in 1964 and 1972 and as AIP in 1968.

@AaronKreider https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Anderson 1980 went from Republican to independent. But he also got crushed in the general.

How would you resolve a situation where Trump runs as an independent but doesn't, strictly speaking, create a new party?

@Gabrielle Yes

@ByZyGuy I was wondering how this managed to stay at 17%. I have to say, that seems like a strange way to resolve the market in that case - you might want to add that to the market description.

Will Donald Trump Create His Own Party for the 2024 Election?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition