Suppose that the choice is offered to you out of the blue and for a brief moment, during which you cannot exchange with anyone. So for example, you cannot ask your wealthy friend to bankroll your roll of the dice. The choice is yours and yours only.
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I don't like low odds because it almost never happens. But the 1B deal is actually way better. Because you have only 1/50 chance of winning compared to the 20k deal. But 20k times 50 is only 1 million. So for the first deal if it was similar probability you would get 1 million on 1% probability. The other you get a billion. Way more +EV. Should have bet on the second option
@NielS What these votes indicate is that Manifold is made up of poor people who think their lives would be changed by getting $20k.
It would affect my life in no way. In fact I am about to get a $10k annual bonus anyway (exactly the same as the 50% of 20k) and it won't change anything.
I would take the 1%.
@DavidBolin True but personally i don't play the lottery because i seen only people lose with that. You have more chance to die tomorrow then win the actual lottery. What has worked for me is to invest, try to make some steady and slow gains. Eventually you can also get wealthy doing that but it's the slow and hard way. But easy come easy go.
"What these votes indicate is that Manifold is made up of poor people who think their lives would be changed by getting $20k."
You could say the opposite. People with lottery mindsets are usually dirt poor. A smart gambler doesn't go for that 1 big win but wants consistent gains.
@DavidBolin I wasn't joking, by the way. If you decide to keep your 10k, I'll just have to assume that that money means more to you than you let on. Otherwise, let me know where I can send you my banking information for a wire transfer. I might even create a market about it with your permission: "Will David Bolin send me 10k to prove his point?"
@DavidBolin I know but that's why i said it's the most EV and smartest to do in this case purely from that perspective. But i mean more in general, i wouldn't play a lottery.