The cities in question:
Seiveirodonetsk, Kreminna, Lysychansk, Melitopol, Mariupol, Tokmak, Donetsk, or Svatove
This market will resolve with the same result, at the same time as its counterpart on Insight Prediction:
https://insightprediction.com/m/201557/will-ukraine-retake-control-of-seiveirodonetsk-kreminna-lysychansk-melitopol-mariupol-tokmak-donetsk-or-svatove-by-september-15th
The Insight market should resolve as "Yes" if, at any point in time before September 15th, 2023, Ukraine retakes control of any of the following central points in any of these cities, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): the train station "Avtovokzal" in Seiveirodonetsk, the intersection of R66 and "Kosmonavta Titova Vulytsa" in Kreminna, any part of "Karl Marks street (Vulytsa)" in Lysychansk, "Donetsk (railroad) Station" in Donetsk, the central train station in Melitopol, Azovstal station in Mariupol, the train station "Verkniy Tokmak" in Tokmak, or Svatove train station in Svatove.
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,206 | |
| 2 | Ṁ250 | |
| 3 | Ṁ240 | |
| 4 | Ṁ197 | |
| 5 | Ṁ151 |
A reminder that this market is designed to resolve the same way as its counterpart here:
https://insightprediction.com/m/201557/will-ukraine-retake-control-of-seiveirodonetsk-kreminna-lysychansk-melitopol-mariupol-tokmak-donetsk-or-svatove-by-september-15th
@BrendanFinan damn, I just bought the YES price instead of the true odds
True YES price should be $0.71
Need my coffee
@BrendanFinan where is the yes price from. the 0.71.. the link shows 0.91c
@higherLEVELING scroll down and check the chart. $0.71 is the "mid-market" price, halfway between the cheapest YES price and the cheapest NO price
Right now the most likely is svatove or kremina but ukraine lack the force concentration on this front.
and i doubt they take Tokmak
@DouglasCampbell Thanks, it's not mine! I encourage everyone to find real-money markets that they like on other websites and "clone" them on Manifold
