Will Biden and Trump be the next presidential nominees of their parties?
232
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1.9K
Sep 30
95%
chance
Trump announces campaign
Nov 15
Biden announces reelection bid
Apr 26
Iowa Caucuses
Jan 15
DeSantis drops out
Jan 22

Resolves YES if Joe Biden is the Democratic Nominee and Donald Trump (Sr.) is the Republican Nominee for US President in 2024. If either party initially nominated another person this resolves NO. Only the first nomination matters, replacements don't count.

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predicts NO

Will you resolve as soon as the nominees are selected? What happens if one of them withdraws later before Election Day?

predicts YES

@YaakovSaxon I will go with the first person to be officially nominated by each party. So this will resolve as soon as both parties have nominated someone.

@BoltonBailey You should rephrase the question to accurately reflect that.

predicts NO

@DanPowell Care to be more specific about what you find inaccurate as it stands (I guess you don't think it would count as a rematch if they were both nominated but one died or dropped out before the election)? Any particular suggestion for how to rephrase it?

predicts NO

@BoltonBailey How about "Will Biden and Trump both be nominated?"

@BoltonBailey “Will Biden and Trump be the first presidential nominees” or change the resolution criteria to match the question asked.

sold Ṁ66 of NO

Also relevant

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Easy arb:

@rockenots can you explain your reasoning? Is this a guaranteed profit, does it depend on object-level models?,

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@EliasSchmied I think at the time this comment was made, this market was trading above the linked market.

@BoltonBailey Yes, but I'd just like to know how you get a guaranteed profit out of that (I'm sure I'm missing the obvious)

predicts NO

@EliasSchmied When I made the comment, the market for a Biden/Trump rematch was trading above the market for Trump being the Republican nominee which is incoherent as a prerequisite for a Biden/Trump rematch is Trump being the Republican nominee (according to the market criteria). So I bought some NO on the Biden/Trump rematch market and some YES on the Trump = Repub nominee market.

If Trump doesn't become the Republican nominee, I make money (the profit from the Biden/Trump market would be greater than what I invested in the other market; I get $29 but invested $28). If Trump became the Republican nominee, I also make money (the profit from the Trump = Repub nominee market would also also more than what invested in the Biden/Trump rematch market; I get $29 but invested $28). And as a bonus scenario, if Trump becomes the Republican nominee and Biden doesn't become the Democrat nominee I make money on both the markets (I make $58 but invested $28).

I didn't go through that entire thought process before I traded though. I just noticed that the market probabilities were incoherent and bought the appropriate shares to make sure I made money no matter what scenario occurred.

@rockenots I see, tysm!