Resolves YES if Joe Biden is the Democratic Nominee and Donald Trump (Sr.) is the Republican Nominee for US President in 2024.
@rockenots can you explain your reasoning? Is this a guaranteed profit, does it depend on object-level models?,
@EliasSchmied I think at the time this comment was made, this market was trading above the linked market.
@BoltonBailey Yes, but I'd just like to know how you get a guaranteed profit out of that (I'm sure I'm missing the obvious)
@EliasSchmied When I made the comment, the market for a Biden/Trump rematch was trading above the market for Trump being the Republican nominee which is incoherent as a prerequisite for a Biden/Trump rematch is Trump being the Republican nominee (according to the market criteria). So I bought some NO on the Biden/Trump rematch market and some YES on the Trump = Repub nominee market.
If Trump doesn't become the Republican nominee, I make money (the profit from the Biden/Trump market would be greater than what I invested in the other market; I get $29 but invested $28). If Trump became the Republican nominee, I also make money (the profit from the Trump = Repub nominee market would also also more than what invested in the Biden/Trump rematch market; I get $29 but invested $28). And as a bonus scenario, if Trump becomes the Republican nominee and Biden doesn't become the Democrat nominee I make money on both the markets (I make $58 but invested $28).
I didn't go through that entire thought process before I traded though. I just noticed that the market probabilities were incoherent and bought the appropriate shares to make sure I made money no matter what scenario occurred.
@rockenots I see, tysm!