Will Starship undergo a static fire test of all 33 engines by January 31?
2%
chance

For this to resolve, we must see either a communication from Musk or SpaceX that such a test took place, or a video of the event. Resolves YES even if the test is unsuccessful, as long as either all of the engines fire simultaneously or the ship explodes.

Close date updated to 2023-01-31 11:59 pm

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Isaac228c avatar
Isaac
is predicting NO at 6%

Road closure cancelled, now <.1% chance of static fire

BoltonBailey avatar

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Isaac228c avatar
Isaac
is predicting NO at 28%
chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billington
bought Ṁ20 of YES

Another question: will you resolve YES if they attempt to light all engines, but a few do not actually fire? I.e. a failed attempt, but not a RUD.

BoltonBailey avatar

@chrisjbillington In that event I would resolve it NO. I made this decision because I think it's a bit hard to tell if they really intended to light all 33 or just tried to light as many as they thought they could dynamically based on the performance as engines began to start.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billington
is predicting YES at 27%

Fair enough, but that makes the market depend a lot on the success rate of raptors igniting, rather than whether a static fire of all 33 is attempted. I am also under the impression that there is not really enough time during a static fire to turn on 33 engines non-simultaneously, so I think the scenario you're catering for here is unlikely. I could be wrong about that, not 100% sure.

There are road-closures Monday to Wednesday, making me think an attempt before end of month is more likely than not. But I have no idea what the success rate of lighting a raptor is, raised to the power of 33. Might be low.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billington
bought Ṁ35 of YES

"by" means "on or before" Jan 31st, right?

(Seriously, Manifold should have a popup every time "by" is used in a market title)

BoltonBailey avatar

@chrisjbillington Yes, that's how I use it.