resolved Jan 1

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predicted YES
bought Ṁ500 of YES

Tomek's 40k market cashing out has left me with a pretty bearish portfolio overall, so thanks to @MarcusAbramovitch for the limit order here.

This one is going to be very close.

The big bitcoin ETF decision date is January 10. Furthermore, traditionally, January 1 has been an incredible day for BTC - in 2017, for example, I remember it passing $1000 again, and in 2023 it started a recovery that day. Furthermore, backtesting shows that simply buying BTC 3 business days before end of month and selling 3 business days after start of month is a great strategy (and it was in December 2023 too.)

Then, you have the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which if approved, would result in hundreds of thousands of BTC going on sale because of redemptions. The demand for ETFs is not there, as shown by the lack of interest in foreign funds. Of course, if all ETFs are denied, the price will fall too. And we are right in line with previous cycles, getting into the consecutive 10-15% daily rise period now.

I'm not going to bet on this market because I think the top of this four year cycle will occur during the first week of January, perhaps around Jan. 3. I could be off by a few days, which is my worry. I would bet on the market if it asked what the price of BTC will be on January 12.

I think this halving cycle, which has moved forward due to high hashrate, is also being frontrun, so that it will coincide with the ETF hype. People are not only misunderstanding the impact of ETFs on price, it's also a sell the news event anyway. On X, I said 6-12 months ago that we would see this cycle peak between $35,000 and $50,000, and I believe we are right in line with that.

predicted NO


I think the top of this four year cycle will occur during the first week of January, perhaps around Jan. 3

Are you saying that BTC will reach its all time high of >$60k again around that date? Surely if that's the case then YES in this market would be a good buy.

@BoltonBailey No. I said the cycle would top between $35,000 and $50,000.

predicted YES

@SteveSokolowski I just don't get what you mean by "cycle". The last halving was about 3.5 years ago and the price of Bitcoin was 64k two years ago, so how can the top of the cycle be 50k? I guess you mean the peak since the price came down from the high two years ago?

@BoltonBailey There was too much damage to cryptocurrency from the scams in 2022 for this cycle to hit a new high. Digital Currency Group is still operating, for example - it's a zombie company that is under investigation by multiple agencies. Tether is still around, and so is Binance.

predicted YES

Note for followers: Steve has made a market about this

predicted NO

@deagol your portfolio is big enough. Let's make a real bet

@MarcusAbramovitch thanks, but to get outa this hole i must stop digging (chasing this silly asset’s price down, then up)

predicted NO

@deagol I mean, if you think it was a good bet for like 100 mana, i don't see why not for like 10k mana. You have a big enough portfolio

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch that’s far from how I value bets. Would you bet your whole life savings and mortgage your house if a casino gave you a one-time slightly favorable offer at the roulette (say 35:1 odds) or just bet an amount you’ll still be ok if you lose?

predicted NO

@deagol I agree. But you should be willing to make decent sized bets. I wouldn't bet my whole life savings. I would bet like 1% of my net worth though or whatever kelly suggests (I know the odds therefore i don't need to go like half kelly)

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch yeah, I would never bet 1% of my worth on anything with such long odds. I guess I’m more risk averse than you, and that’s fine.

predicted NO

@deagol long odds? 69%

predicted NO

@deagol never betting 1% of net worth on anything is rather silly. Say you are the average 40 year old American with a net worth of about 400k. Should you not even consider getting a house? Or having money in the stock market? Or having bonds? etc. How diversified can you get/

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch I thought your 1% of net worth was on the roulette example. On this market I’m now 365 on top of 524 lost, total is indeed about 1% of net worth. I will bet way more than 1% of my worth on very many things, I only meant not at 35:1 “edge” at the roulette.

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch “on anything with such long odds” as a single roulette play.

predicted NO

@deagol Not sure why we are talking about a roulette wheel but sure. In that case, with such a minor edge on low probability events. I think it's something like 0.1% of bankroll should be put.

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch yea that’s probably more like it. I gave that extreme example to more easily demonstrate my fundamental disagreement with “if you think it was a good bet for like 100 mana, i don't see why not for like 10k mana”

So, here I could never justify 10k (~12% of my mana net worth), unless I guess if the price gave me a huge edge, or the odds weren’t so flip-of-a-coin-ish, I mean, I’ve already way underestimated the variance on the underlying, so I’m taking it slower see if I can recoup maybe half of what I lost.

This market could be interesting to some of you

bought Ṁ50 of NO

If bitcoin price is an unbiased walk then this should be about half the probability that bitcoin hits 40k