In this blog post, @MatthewBarnett argues that AGI could drive human wages below subsistence level. He estimates a 1-in-3 chance of this happening before 2045 and a 2-in-3 chance before 2125.

This question asks if this will come to pass before these dates, or any other dates users would like to add. In all cases, ambiguities should be resolved by interpreting the definitions in terms of the language of the post. Some relevant passages:

On AGI:

artificial general intelligence (AGI)—defined here as a technology that can functionally substitute for human workers in all labor tasks

On subsistence:

the bare minimum needed to sustain human life

Also perhaps important to note:

Note: this post focuses on the impacts of AGI on human wages, not human welfare. It is important to keep in mind that humans could still maintain a high quality of life after AGI even if wages fall below subsistence level. This is because they could receive other sources of income to sustain themselves, such as dividends, government welfare, and charity. Therefore, I am not arguing that humans will starve to death after AGI.

Please add any additional dates in YYYY-MM-DD format.