In 2016 and 2020, the news organization FiveThirtyEight put out results from a statistical model predicting the results of the elections in those years. The 2020 model https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ came out in Early June showing Biden with a 70% chance of winning, and was frozen the day of the election, showing Biden with a 89% chance of winning - a difference of 19 percentage points. This question asks if a similar model put out in 2024 will show a difference of more than 10 points between the earliest time listed on the homepage for the model, and the model result on the day of the election (or otherwise, the last day the model was active before being frozen). If FiveThirtyEight doesn't put out a model, this resolves N/A.