As Nate Silver has said on his substack, he is out at FiveThirtyEight, but his election model is owned by him, not Disney. This leads me to question what will happen with FiveThirtyEight's usual election model.

This resolves YES if in the 2024 election season, there is an election model on fivethirtyeight.com showing predictions for the likelihood of candidates to be president, and if this model seems to be a new model, different from the Silver one. If Silver or 538 say that this is the Silver model licensed again, then this resolves NO. If 538 says that this is a new model (or a model that someone wrote some time ago but nevertheless new to 538), this resolves YES. If I can't find any messaging from Silver or 538 saying where this model comes from, I'll assume it's a new model and resolve YES.