Marginal weather in the tipping point state

Ṁ300Ṁ13

2028

Wet weather // R wins by > 4% margin

Wet weather // R wins by 2%-4% margin

Wet weather // R wins by 0%-2% margin

15%

Wet weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin

Wet weather // D wins by 2%-4% margin

Wet weather // D wins by > 4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by > 4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by 2%-4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by 0%-2% margin

15%

Dry weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin

Dry weather // D wins by 2%-4% margin

Dry weather // D wins by > 4% margin

This market asks two questions: What the Republican/Democrat margin of victory will be in the tipping point state for the 2028 US POTUS election, and whether the weather will be wet in the state on election day.

The criteria for what counts as rainy weather will be:

Look at the top 5 cities in the state by population
Check if it precipitated in those cities according to the citywide weather icon for election day on Weather Underground
Is the answer is "yes" for most of the people in those cities?

Market context

Weather

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