# Boklam's calibration

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Boklam bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

10 largest bets for each bucket

3%

5%

10%

- Will Vladimir Putin and/or Volodymyr Zelenskyy die before December 2022NOṀ20
- Will it be possible to short a position on a Yes/No market by Feb. 15?NOṀ10
- China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022YESṀ10
- China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022YESṀ6
- Will there be government restrictions in the UK this winter to reduce spread of Covid and other respiratory illnesses?NOṀ5
- Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?YESṀ5
- Will Hans Niemann confess that he cheated over-the-board in 2022?NOṀ3
- Will any of the traders roll 1337 on a 2000-sided Fairly Random die by EOY? (with hax)NOṀ1

20%

- Will I genuinely hate someone on manifold by the end of March?NOṀ40
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?NOṀ27
- @IsaacKing and @DesTiny together manipulated @DesTiny's personal goal market to earn Ṁ16,000 profit. Will manifold users find that ethnical?NOṀ20
- Will California fire season be worse this year than last year?NOṀ5
- Will I believe that 5 is bigger than -10 at the end of February?NOṀ1

30%

- Will the average price of a dozen eggs drop below $3.50 in February 2023?NOṀ200
- Will the average price of a dozen eggs drop below $3.50 in February 2023?NOṀ40
- [Change My Mind] Would chess be more fun if there were no "Mate" rules?YESṀ20
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?NOṀ15
- Will North Korea conduct a nuclear weapons test in 2022?NOṀ10
- Will anyone reach a high score of over 300 in Hateris by the end of 2022?NOṀ10
- Will the balloon east of Hawaii be shot down?NOṀ1

40%

- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ51
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ40
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?NOṀ40
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ38
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ37
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?NOṀ30
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?NOṀ30
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ20
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?NOṀ12
- Will I be involved in another drama by end of March?NOṀ10

50%

- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?NOṀ66
- Will Liz Truss be Prime Minister of the UK at the start of 2023?NOṀ50
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?NOṀ47
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ42
- Will FiveThirtyEight underestimate the number of Republicans in the House?NOṀ40
- Will there be >=83,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of 2022?YESṀ20
- Will this market wiggle 40-60 at least 10 times in 30 days?YESṀ10

60%

- Will this market have 40 unique traders by the end of the year?YESṀ62
- Will FiveThirtyEight underestimate the number of Republicans in the House?NOṀ50
- Will at least 20 unique traders contribute to the 40-60 wiggliness of this market?NOṀ25
- Will anyone reach a high score of over 300 in Hateris by the end of 2022?NOṀ10
- Will a betting cabal be created this year?NOṀ2
- Will any of the traders roll 42 on a 100-sided Fairly Random die by EOY? (no hax)YESṀ1

90%

97%