Background

The Trump administration, with Elon Musk as head of the Department of Government Efficiency, has placed most USAID employees on administrative leave and ordered those abroad to return to the U.S. within 30 days. The administration is exploring options to reorganize or abolish the agency, potentially integrating its functions into the State Department. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is overseeing restructuring plans, while Democrats are preparing legal challenges to the shutdown.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• A majority (>50%) of USAID employees who were placed on administrative leave are reinstated to their previous positions or equivalent roles within USAID

• USAID is reorganized under the State Department or another federal agency with a majority of employees retaining their jobs

• This must occur within 6 months of their being placed on leave

The market will resolve NO if:

• Less than 50% of employees are reinstated within 6 months

• USAID is permanently abolished

• USAID is merged into the State Department and employees are not given equivalent positions

Considerations

• The resolution of this market may be affected by ongoing legal challenges

• If employees are offered different positions within a restructured organization, this will only count as reinstatement if the roles are equivalent in terms of responsibility and compensation

• Voluntary departures or retirements will not be counted against the reinstatement percentage