Which women will vote for Trump?

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91%

Rural women

65%

Southern women

62%

Married women

48%

Women over 65

43%

Full time working women

39%

Ohio women

38%

White women

32%

Catholic women

13%

Suburban women

Latinas

Arizona women

North Carolina women

Women with a college degree

1.3%

Gen Z women

Will Trump be able to persuade a majority of women in any demographic group to vote for him this November?

Add responses! These should be something we can verify with a reputable poll.

Resolves based on CNN exit polls (or other credible polling data where CNN didn’t poll the specific segment).

YES if more than 50% of respondents in that group say they voted for Trump.

NO if more than 50% say they voted for Biden.

PARTIAL if no one got more than 50% AND Trump got a plurality, resolved to the % who say they voted for Trump (e.g. 49%)

N/A if there is no available polling.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Trump

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bought Ṁ50 Women over 65 NO

I don't see single women anywhere. Ooops, I know why. 🤣🤣🤣

reposted

Added a couple more: “Women from the South” and “Women over 65”

2020 exit polls:

reposted

Catholic women

@Kraalnaxx

Does morality play no role in modern Christian communities anymore? Trump is like the polar opposite to Jesus. Why do they all believe he is the chosen one?

Note that Biden carried Catholic women in the 2020 election, which makes sense since he is a Catholic.

I anticipate this is as high as it is because people expect Catholic women to vote based on abortion. Personally I’m not sure, since American Catholics span the political spectrum.

bought Ṁ50 Catholic women NO

Sampling bias, but my wife and a fair share of her huge catholic family are socialist democrats.

Married women

@BlueDragon probably because they outsource decision making to their husbands

I know some serious alpha women conservatives who voted for Trump because they are against woke liberals and unmoved by pink hats and porn stars.

Let’s see if they can handle Vance. I don’t know but I’m about to vote no.

@traders I clarified the resolution criteria just now, reply with comments, questions, etc.

Notably I added a specific default resolution source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

bought Ṁ100 White women YES

Trump won white women 47 - 45 in 2016 and 53 - 46 in 2020

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4577139-joe-biden-donald-trump-women-female-voters-gen-z-college-educated-black-women/

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