Background
The U.S. national debt currently exceeds $36 trillion, having grown significantly in recent years. During Donald Trump's first term (2017-2021), the national debt increased by approximately $7.8 trillion, rising from about $19.9 trillion to $27.7 trillion. This increase was driven by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, increased government spending, and emergency measures during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects annual budget deficits to average around $2 trillion over the next decade under current law. However, these projections assume the 2017 tax cuts expire as scheduled. Trump has indicated he plans to extend and potentially expand these tax cuts, which could result in larger deficits and faster debt growth.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the official U.S. national debt figure at the end of Trump's second administration. The specific value will be determined using the "Total Public Debt Outstanding" as reported by the U.S. Treasury Department for the last quarter of Trump’s presidency based on data provided through FRED:
If FRED data is not available, “Total Public Debt Outstanding” will be estimated based on the last month of Trump’s presidency as available here:
If Trump does not complete a full term, or if his term is extended, the market will resolve based on the national debt on the day his administration ends.
The resolution will use the final, official debt figure in trillions of dollars, rounded to the nearest tenth (e.g., $40.1 trillion). If there are subsequent revisions to the debt figure after initial resolution, the market will not be retroactively adjusted.
Considerations
The national debt is influenced by numerous factors beyond presidential policies, including:
Economic growth rates
Interest rates on government debt
Global economic conditions
Congressional budget decisions
Unforeseen events requiring emergency spending
The debt-to-GDP ratio, which measures the debt relative to the size of the economy, is considered by many economists to be as important as the absolute debt figure.
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