Björn Jürgens's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.78
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Björn Jürgens bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
10%
20%
30%
40%
- 17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ25
- 5. Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023?NOṀ20
- A defendant in a class I or II felony case in the United States will use an "AI Told Me to Do It" defense before the end of 2023NOṀ10
50%
- 41. Will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction, in 2023?NOṀ60
- A defendant in a class I or II felony case in the United States will use an "AI Told Me to Do It" defense before the end of 2023NOṀ20
- Will Kevin McCarthy be the next Speaker of the House?YESṀ10
60%
70%
80%
90%