What information/strategy will be useful to me in the Salem tournament?
5
320Ṁ115
resolved Jan 11
70%1.0%
Get a notification system in place so you can know when someone buys a position so you can react more quickly than others in challenging their bet
20%3%
Copy trade @GeorgeVii
10%0.0%
Only trade one or two markets at a time
24%Other
73%
ANTE

I'm currently participating in the Salem tournament (check out the rules here: https://www.cspicenter.com/p/introducing-the-salemcspi-forecasting).

I'm experimenting with a few strategies to get money quickly. I'm also looking for good and lesser-known information sources.

I will PROB resolve to the responses to this market that end up being most useful to me. Submissions will be evaluated based on a few factors:

  • Week-over-week returns on investment.

  • I haven't already thought of it/started implementing it by myself yet.

  • Saves me time.

  • It hasn't been offered by someone else yet (% similarity will be penalized).

  • If it is an information source, is it good and knowingly reliable (as in, there exists a page that shows it is well calibrated)?

  • It isn't risky. Risky strategies often have good returns, but can't be held for a year.

It could just be an observation about a particular type of market being continuously underpriced or overpriced, or something like that. It can be a set of sources that estimate reliably the price the market should be at all times so that I can bet towards it (regularly updated sources are especially valuable!). As long as it is useful and that it ends up being beneficial to me, I'm happy!

I'm willing to tip upwards of hundreds of Mana per good strategy that I end up using and which I find useful. Comment after responding, and I'll immediately tip you proportionally to how valuable I find the strategy, and then if I end up using it and it works, I'll tip you even more. I have 10,000 Mana I'm willing to burn on this.

If you don't want to give away one of your strategies/sources publicly but want the Mana, you can DM me on discord at BionicD0LPH1N#5326 and I'll tip you here after you write a comment proportional to the info's value. If you think that I undertipped a strategy/information source, you can give an argument for why it actually is better than I thought. If I'm convinced, I'll tip you as well as the person who brought up the strategy in the first place.

If you want to hear some of my strategies/information sources, DM me and we might be able to arrange a trade of strategies/info (be careful, if it's an obvious strategy I might have already thought of it). In positive-sum trades, everyone wins! (I can tip you in addition to that of course if that's what you're interested in.)

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