What EA-related questions should I create markets for?
4
320Ṁ41
resolved Jul 2
100%28%
Conditional on EA investing $X to lobby for bill Y, what is the probability that Y passes?
50%Other
11%
Predict the estimated cost-effectiveness of various charities, according to GiveWell in 2025
12%
Predict the number of hospitalisations caused by infectious disease next election cycle
By July 1st, I will choose the best Effective Altruism-related questions from this market, and create markets for them. I will resolve with %, proportionally to the quality of the questions I end up choosing. The main criteria for the decision of which questions will get a larger share of the pie (not all of these aspects need to be hit): - Does the question help people make better and more impactful life decisions? - Does the question provide information to decision-makers regarding where to place more EA resources? - Is the question useful in the short term? - Is the question informational? (if it's obvious in advance how the question will resolve, it contains less information) - Is the question interesting, and prone to creating an active market? Suggest other criteria! Additionally, you are encouraged to subsidize the question creators proportionally to the extent to which you like their questions, by tipping them. I will add a comment (called TIP ME) in this market so that you may subsidize the creation of as many useful EA markets as possible! Jun 23, 5:27pm: Additional criterion: - Is this question specific, in the sense that I can directly translate it into a market without any necessary modification? (not required, but the general idea of this market is to save me time by outsourcing the process of thinking of question specifics)
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ37
2Ṁ5
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy