What EA-related questions should I create markets for?

320Ṁ41

resolved Jul 2

ALL

100%28%

Conditional on EA investing $X to lobby for bill Y, what is the probability that Y passes?

50%Other

11%

Predict the estimated cost-effectiveness of various charities, according to GiveWell in 2025

12%

Predict the number of hospitalisations caused by infectious disease next election cycle

By July 1st, I will choose the best Effective Altruism-related questions from this market, and create markets for them. I will resolve with %, proportionally to the quality of the questions I end up choosing. The main criteria for the decision of which questions will get a larger share of the pie (not all of these aspects need to be hit): - Does the question help people make better and more impactful life decisions? - Does the question provide information to decision-makers regarding where to place more EA resources? - Is the question useful in the short term? - Is the question informational? (if it's obvious in advance how the question will resolve, it contains less information) - Is the question interesting, and prone to creating an active market? Suggest other criteria! Additionally, you are encouraged to subsidize the question creators proportionally to the extent to which you like their questions, by tipping them. I will add a comment (called TIP ME) in this market so that you may subsidize the creation of as many useful EA markets as possible! Jun 23, 5:27pm: Additional criterion: - Is this question specific, in the sense that I can directly translate it into a market without any necessary modification? (not required, but the general idea of this market is to save me time by outsourcing the process of thinking of question specifics)

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Which manifold.markets user will have the most questions asked about them by EOY 2025?

Will this market?

76% chance

What markets do I need to take an action on?

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I'll fund creation of markets (questions) for users with under M$2000 net worth!

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@BionicD0LPH1N No problem! I've got no idea whether those numbers are reasonable, but it should be a starting point. Hopefully someone forks my answers!

@JonathanNankivell Thanks a lot!

So, for concreteness: If EA orgs spend over $100,000 lobbying for the wellbeing of future generations bill, will it reach Royal assent by 2023? And If EA orgs spend less than $100,000 lobbying for the wellbeing of future generations bill, will it reach Royal assent by 2023?

Example bills: Wellbeing of future generations bill [1], Air-quality regulations [2] (fund monitoring programs), funding for pandemic prevention (stockpile PPE, fund the sentinel system [3]), actually fund the biological weapons convention, etc. [1] https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2869 [2] https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/south-asian-air-quality/ [3] https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/pardis-sabeti-sentinel/