What EA-related questions should I create markets for?
Jul 2
M$41 bet
By July 1st, I will choose the best Effective Altruism-related questions from this market, and create markets for them. I will resolve with %, proportionally to the quality of the questions I end up choosing. The main criteria for the decision of which questions will get a larger share of the pie (not all of these aspects need to be hit): - Does the question help people make better and more impactful life decisions? - Does the question provide information to decision-makers regarding where to place more EA resources? - Is the question useful in the short term? - Is the question informational? (if it's obvious in advance how the question will resolve, it contains less information) - Is the question interesting, and prone to creating an active market? Suggest other criteria! Additionally, you are encouraged to subsidize the question creators proportionally to the extent to which you like their questions, by tipping them. I will add a comment (called TIP ME) in this market so that you may subsidize the creation of as many useful EA markets as possible! Jun 23, 5:27pm: Additional criterion: - Is this question specific, in the sense that I can directly translate it into a market without any necessary modification? (not required, but the general idea of this market is to save me time by outsourcing the process of thinking of question specifics)
JonathanNankivell
Conditional on EA investing $X to lobby for bill Y, what is the probability that Y passes?
28%
JonathanNankivell
Predict the number of hospitalisations caused by infectious disease next election cycle
12%
JonathanNankivell
Predict the estimated cost-effectiveness of various charities, according to GiveWell in 2025
11%
Add your answer
JonathanNankivell
Conditional on EA investing $X to lobby for bill Y, what is the probability that Y passes?
28%
JonathanNankivell
And create a sister market conditional on not investing in bill Y
0
JonathanNankivell
Jonathan Nankivell is betting Predict th...ll in 2025
Example bills: Wellbeing of future generations bill [1], Air-quality regulations [2] (fund monitoring programs), funding for pandemic prevention (stockpile PPE, fund the sentinel system [3]), actually fund the biological weapons convention, etc. [1] https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2869 [2] https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/south-asian-air-quality/ [3] https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/pardis-sabeti-sentinel/
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JonathanNankivell
Jonathan Nankivell is betting Predict th...ll in 2025
So, for concreteness: If EA orgs spend over $100,000 lobbying for the wellbeing of future generations bill, will it reach Royal assent by 2023? And If EA orgs spend less than $100,000 lobbying for the wellbeing of future generations bill, will it reach Royal assent by 2023?
0
JonathanNankivell
Jonathan Nankivell is betting Predict th...ll in 2025
@BionicD0LPH1N No problem! I've got no idea whether those numbers are reasonable, but it should be a starting point. Hopefully someone forks my answers!
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JonathanNankivell
Predict the number of hospitalisations caused by infectious disease next election cycle
12%
JonathanNankivell
Hopefully quantifying this would make it politically salient!
0
JonathanNankivell
Predict the estimated cost-effectiveness of various charities, according to GiveWell in 2025
11%
General Comments
JonathanNankivell
Predict the estimated cost-effectiveness of various charities, according to GiveWell in 2025
0
BionicD0LPH1N
TIP ME
0