It costs 1000M to create markets now, which has led some people to stop creating markets. In the comment section below, you can:
create a new comment with some specific market idea
heart <3 market ideas you like
reply/collaborate on some existing market idea
for the benefit of all, create some market in the comments, and link it there so that others can see it and benefit from it
That way, people can share what markets they'd like to have exist, without requiring them to pay the mana! If there's enough interest, someone else will surely create the market.
The market resolves YES when 20 market ideas turn into actual markets in the comments below. duplicates/daily markets will count for 1. If the market resolves YES, I'll make a new one, most likely.
Resolves NO, otherwise, at the end of july.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ175 | |
| 2 | Ṁ70 | |
| 3 | Ṁ69 | |
| 4 | Ṁ60 | |
| 5 | Ṁ38 |
I want a market made about something like whether people will continue their performative overconfidence about P(doom) and other ai-politically-charged questions of credence. In latest news, EA forum post https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GfGxaPBAMGcYjv8Xd/i-bet-greg-colbourn-10-keur-that-ai-will-not-kill-us-all-by with p(doom)=1e-7, and dr. roman yampolskiy on twitter with p(doom) = 99.999999%. I wish these people would be less absurd, and would like a market to exist to quantify whether they would become less absurd, or whether famous movement leaders and somesuch would have less absurd probabilities a few years down the line
market like "will 20 manifold api services be made from users on this market to other users on this market, by the end of july?" where the idea is that you can ask "please send me a python script that fetches all my positions ordered by size where loans are not included in the size, I'll pay you 500M or 1000M or 5000M or wtv for that info" and boom, people without as much technical expertise can trade with those who do
Hurricane intensity markets: when a tropical depression forms (or maybe is marked as an invest), have a multiple choice market to forecast its strength
I was planning on creating one of these for every storm this year, but the pivot has made that a lot more difficult...might still be able to afford it if I close early and users are bad at it, but it probably wouldn't get much attention closing early.
Will someone create a debate market on a particular subject, resolved by polling anyone who commented, by the end of June?
was thinking this as an alternative to my last debate market. idea is you pick a contentious subject for users to debate in the comments & see if manifold can reach a consensus by the close date