Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
11
Ṁ728
Aug 1
55%
chance

It costs 1000M to create markets now, which has led some people to stop creating markets. In the comment section below, you can:

  1. create a new comment with some specific market idea

  2. heart <3 market ideas you like

  3. reply/collaborate on some existing market idea

  4. for the benefit of all, create some market in the comments, and link it there so that others can see it and benefit from it

That way, people can share what markets they'd like to have exist, without requiring them to pay the mana! If there's enough interest, someone else will surely create the market.

The market resolves YES when 20 market ideas turn into actual markets in the comments below. duplicates/daily markets will count for 1. If the market resolves YES, I'll make a new one, most likely.

Resolves NO, otherwise, at the end of july.

Get Ṁ600 play money

Related questions

Sort by:

Will mr beast's most popular video have over 1 billion views, by the end of 2025? currently 617M

I want a market made about something like whether people will continue their performative overconfidence about P(doom) and other ai-politically-charged questions of credence. In latest news, EA forum post https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GfGxaPBAMGcYjv8Xd/i-bet-greg-colbourn-10-keur-that-ai-will-not-kill-us-all-by with p(doom)=1e-7, and dr. roman yampolskiy on twitter with p(doom) = 99.999999%. I wish these people would be less absurd, and would like a market to exist to quantify whether they would become less absurd, or whether famous movement leaders and somesuch would have less absurd probabilities a few years down the line

@Bayesian holy shit if yud is telling you your P(doom) is too high you've seriously fucked up 😆

Should 100M markets count for the purpose of this market? I would think so even though it's a bit of a gotcha; open to disagreement

market like "will 20 manifold api services be made from users on this market to other users on this market, by the end of july?" where the idea is that you can ask "please send me a python script that fetches all my positions ordered by size where loans are not included in the size, I'll pay you 500M or 1000M or 5000M or wtv for that info" and boom, people without as much technical expertise can trade with those who do

Will a prediction market platform have shares backed in some asset that grows in value over time, to price long term question markets better, before 2030 or 2035 or wtv else

markets about play markets, like will they go up in price, will some incentives be fixed about them, etc

Lots of markets about the predictions in this series of essays https://situational-awareness.ai

Market about the best quotes of all time (Greatest Q.O.A.T.s)

Market about the best puns

@Bayesian Market about best jokes

that bounty was not successful

Market about the most Incredible Thought in the song Incredible Thoughts

Peer review market: Someone shares a draft of a paper, users add MC options with possible revisions, which resolve YES if the changes are accepted

Hurricane intensity markets: when a tropical depression forms (or maybe is marked as an invest), have a multiple choice market to forecast its strength

I was planning on creating one of these for every storm this year, but the pivot has made that a lot more difficult...might still be able to afford it if I close early and users are bad at it, but it probably wouldn't get much attention closing early.

Manifold chooses: Best superpowers. like the goat markets, successive duels:


Some options:
immortality

path to victory

flight

mind control

etc

Alternatively, the format could be linked MC, where people can add options. after like a month, there's a poll to determine which superpower is coolest

Which manifold user will have the most prize points on DATE

Will the US' military budget be used to train an AI system smarter than GPT-4, before 2026/2027/2028/2029/2030

Will OpenAI get nationalized before 2028/2030/2032

2024 Manifold University Rankings

Vote on various options for higher education (or alternatives)

resolves to % based on holders?

Will someone create a debate market on a particular subject, resolved by polling anyone who commented, by the end of June?

was thinking this as an alternative to my last debate market. idea is you pick a contentious subject for users to debate in the comments & see if manifold can reach a consensus by the close date

Will someone create a Manifold Casino Bot by the end of June?

Will an explicitly gamble-y market (coin-flip-like, not sports, etc) become a prize point market, by the end of June?

Will coin flip markets stop being free money, for manifold creators, by the end of June?

@Bayesian are they free money now? Don't you need a truly vast trading volume to regain the market creation cost post pivot?

@TheAllMemeingEye no, if the market ends at 50% and resolves YES, you get back the 1000M spent, as a creator. That mana is only lost if the market resolves to like 99% and you resolve YES

@Bayesian do you mean like getting it back by insider trading in your own market after you know the resolution?

@TheAllMemeingEye Manifold literally refunds you your subsidy when you resolve a market. You can test this by making a coinflip market, you will get your 1000 mana back when it resolves

@SaviorofPlant wait WHAT‽ Why did nobody tell me before I made 90% of my markets resolve years from now lol

@TheAllMemeingEye If the liquidity is taken before thte market resolves, you don’t get it all back

@Bayesian ok now I'm even more confused

I was under the impression that the starting liquidity from the market creation cost acts like a pair of yes and no bets that pay out to nobody but can be won by opposing betters, so that the first actual bet doesn't instantly swing the odds to 0% or 100%

I therefore thought that the way to take the most liquidity back possible would thus be to hold >99% of the shares (including those contained in the starting liquidity) for the option that it ends up resolving to, with you in that case getting >99% of the opposing half of the starting liquidity plus the opposing bets from other users

Is this not the case? How can one take the liquidity before resolution?

@TheAllMemeingEye It changed. Basically now the owner acts as AMM shares owner. So if the AMM makes a profit, owner makes money. If the AMM loses, owner loses, and if AMM is even, owner is even, which comes down to getting the 1000M back

If you start a market at 50%, and it goes to 99% and resolves yes, the AMM bought lots of no and lost on trades until it was 1000M in the red, so its shares are worth like 10M instead of the origiinal 1000M, so you dont get almost anything back when you resolve, bc the AMM wasnt profitable

But if the AMM is almost always even, as is the case when the market resolves at 50% like in a coinflip market, then you pretty much get your money back everytime

@Bayesian Another way to look at it: you make back the same subsidy as if you bet the answer to whatever it resolves to

@Bayesian Damn, I didn't even know what AMMs were and just went down a huge rabbit hole (Maniswap, Automated Market Makers for Prediction Markets)

So it turns out this site has been using a vastly more mathematically complex mechanism for calculating odds and payouts than I naively assumed, involving financial equivalents to antimatter pair production and conservation laws by the looks of it lol

Honestly it's kinda amazing that I've somehow managed to be consistently turning a profit the past few months I've been on the site despite me using a completely different mental model of how the market mechanics even worked

Thanks for letting me know, I guess the takeaway for non-coinflip markets is to close the markets before the resolution-deciding information is released and traders buy it to 99%

@TheAllMemeingEye @Bayesian would it be accurate to say that a subsidy is a bet that the market is already at the correct %? Also it would be cool if Manifold could borrow some of the math from decentralized crypto exchanges that let's you provide liquidity to a market without losing your shirt when one side goes to zero

I'm not sure if you get your subsidy back from other people's markets