Inkling 2+ (Thinking Machines) release date

Question

The '+' means any version at or above 2 counts: if Thinking Machines skips Inkling 2 and releases Inkling 2.1 or Inkling 3, that still counts for the purpose of this market. Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Inkling 2, will also count.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

@8AyI5Np5yl

@OchSUnInIq

@cgl2IP0yIC

@LU5RqqqEuA

@2OzL6Q56y8

@IZO2UZgUNO

@2CqdhIO9cU

@AnL9Aqgzc5

@N0qR0nZl8O

@AzzEpzA8ys

@ntStglnQz0

@SCnZAUUzEP

@ytI2ZPyzt5

@y5CU6hUn6s

@lPSIdZRpQs

@qyC5ychznC

@RlI6hyuNpU

@2Rh2t5hALp

@NONz6Ntycp (this market)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before October 2026, followed by Before November 2026 and Before December 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Aug 31, 2026).

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