FREE MANA: Will 40 free profit opportunities be shared and taken by the end of September?
Basic
10
Ṁ830
resolved Oct 2
Resolved
NO

What is this market for? It's for users that have a hard time being profitable on manifold, but would like to still make profits with their mana. Experienced users can help with this, and hearing their reasoning can help you improve your reasoning around market probabilities.

Check the comments. Experienced traders will sometimes share markets that are mispriced, ie you can profit on them by betting your mana. These traders might not find it worthwhile to bet on these markets because they resolve in too much time, or because they have better markets to spend their mana on (Risk-free interest rates != 0).

If you bet on a market because of a comment below, you are encouraged to state this, and tip the person that wrote the comment with 20% to 40% of the profits you made because of them. If you take all the "alpha" (fix the shared market to the correct price), you should say that so that others don't waste their time on that market.

This is a beginner friendly market, so you are welcome to ask questions. Some example might be "I think this market (with a link) is super overpriced, for this or that reason. Can someone let me know if they think I'm wrong?". If you have further questions, the [manifold discord](https://discord.com/invite/eHQBNBqXuh) is great for this.

Some extra details:

  • If someone lies to steal people's mana, by saying false things about markets to enrich themselves, they will be banished and shamed. I'll also probably close this market and consider the experiment a failure.

  • If I consider a comment with a free mana claim to be wrong but not malicious, I reserve the right to hide this comment so others don't see it.

  • Please do not break site rules! Do not trick people into giving you quick profits at their expense.

  • If you consider a free-mana claim to be wrong, comment under it with your reasoning. We can discuss the merits of it if they are uncertain.

  • I strongly recommend against sharing markets or trading in markets that have 5year+ resolution dates. Shorter term (up to a year) is strongly encouraged.

Resolution Criterion: If 40 profit opportunities are shared, and someone comments under them saying they have taken them (without lying about this), before October, the market resolves YES.

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At the time I make this post, two of the answers on my White Sox season losses market have become impossible, as I have marked them, but are currently trading above the minimum. The question resolves September 30, 2024, so it's certainly not a long-term commitment.

I will continue to mark answers on that market when they become impossible.

(So, why haven't I bought them down to the minimum? I am explicitly committed to not betting on my own markets.)

@SEE Taken, thanks!

Taken most of the mana for the option "115" before I saw your comment and most of "116" afterwards. Thanks for the reminder!

This already happened in July Unless they are talking about it ending above $69.

Other market for $60 by the same person was resolved yes looks like it is just free mana.

Thanks, took some of the first one

Another one with total odds way over 100%

wow and plus liquidity!

The probabilities on this one should add to 100%, currently way over that

And I think this one is meant to have been linked so the remaining options should be 0%

took a tiny bit of that second one!

https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-the-next-president-of-the-unit

https://manifold.markets/Nightsquared/will-someone-other-than-harris-or-t

I'd say this is an arbitrage opportunity, but honestly I think you can just bet the first market down to ~0

I'm not super experienced in Manifold, but this market is basically guaranteed to resolve as YES due to Debby.

https://manifold.markets/StefanXJ7/will-a-hurricane-strike-the-contine?r=SnVsZXMzYjhk

Currently a small arbitrage opportunity between the Harris options in these markets:

These are mispriced, as the second market should resolve yes only if the first does
EDIT: mispricing is gone

/NuñoSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-4a418ad86de3
Literally free mana, 2% in 5 months is roughly on par with the best high yield saving accounts in terms of APY.

(In other words, please buy out my shares so I can try to get more than 5% APY)

What would the odds be immediately after you sell your shares?

I got a partial fill on my limit order in the last couple of days so at this point it would only go down to 95%. It was ~88% I think.

Lmao there's a truly ungodly amount of limit orders, yeah I don't think there's any chance this one's gonna go low enough to be worth the investment lol

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