https://manifold.markets/Mich/will-i-be-accepted-to-the-invisible

https://manifold.markets/NoUsernameSelected/will-ai-be-able-to-create-art-in-a-0472aaec7c83
should be strictly higher than
https://manifold.markets/NoUsernameSelected/will-ai-be-able-to-create-art-in-a
(though the former does have less liquidity)

/ukaszBartoszcze/will-dune-part-two-be-the-highest-g

This is 0%—Inside Out 2 has already passed it, and will probably roughly ~double its gross within the next two months. But it resolves at end of year.

I see many free profit opportunities being shared, but I don't see many being taken. Do I understand correctly that if fewer than 20 opportunities are being taken, the market will resolve NO?

(Also, to prevent abuse, it should not count if, for example, I were to just go and take all open opportunities, because this market is specifically for "users that have a hard time being profitable on Manifold".)

Should sum up to 500% – but was 653% the last time I checked.
https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/why-is-donald-trump-a-threat-to-dem#answer-8ahvldj6by

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/of-these-40-events-which-will-be-th

should sum to 700%

currently 863%

https://manifold.markets/stardust2/during-the-days-in-june-when-i-see

not free per se because ties resolve to two yesses but i feel like an 80% surplus is too much

fixed

the "It will [not] resemble a cake AND it will taste [good/bad]" option set should add up to 100% https://manifold.markets/Mad/what-will-be-true-of-the-cake-that

At the time of writing, there is a 5-point difference for Trump between the following two markets:

If anything, the probability in the lower market should actually be higher or at least equal.

The probabilities currently add up to 112% in this market:

116% at the moment…

is it not possible that many of these resolve YES if there's some kind of collaboration? idrk

You bring up a valid point.

The open question is whether
«both “university” and “private company” bets might share the payout»
means
«the probabilities should add up to 100%».

https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-the-manifold-twitter-community?r=ZGdnYQ

82 members in 12 hours already; right about guaranteed 5% return at the moment, with the resolution likely to come within 48h.

EDIT: it's a plus market so despite the 95% odds, there is enough subsidy for ~45k in YES bets still

Currently the probabilities in this market add up to 108%: https://manifold.markets/CaseyTheGripLord/what-will-manifold-think-the-best-b?r=TUwxMmQx

What will Manifold think the best bedtime is?

Question ends Jun 17, 2024. I will add a poll a week before asking what the best bedtime is. The most popular will resolve as yes.

Given that there are submitted proofs for goldbachs conjecture that are becoming more and more accepted and (I think) remain only to be computationally verified in some areas, this market should eventually resolve Yes, meaning the remaining percentage is pure profit.

https://manifold.markets/andri/will-there-be-a-new-yellow-guy-in-t

I'm not allowed to bet in this market because I'm the author and it's subjective, but I think 50% is way too high.

https://manifold.markets/Agh/will-destiny-get-unbanned-from-twit-df967649e5f8?r=ZGdnYQ

Since you can only appeal Twitch bans every 6 months and he just got denied, there will be no more appeals before the market close. Free mana at a decent ~3-4% monthly return at the moment

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-republican-party-control-t

There's a few that are certain or near certain to resolve one way

This market is guaranteed to resolve NO

if he dies, would it not stop?

I made this market to manipulate

that's evil! LOL