Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket
11
175Ṁ128
resolved Jun 16
Resolved
YES
I'll change my mind about: "Manifold's value as a prediction market will be clearer when market creators are consistently willing to pay $ for information, rather than receive $ for getting traders."
Resolved
NO
I'll change my mind about: "The most natural and probable outcome for a civilization like humankind is for it to end within a few millennia with a Singleton, a single entity that has ~complete control over everything."
Resolved
NO
I'll change my mind about :"Resolving an option NO when I'm sufficiently confident my mind won't change is the best potential solution I'll come to know before June 16."
Resolved
NO
I'll change my mind about :"The Superalignment team's leads resigning is a really grim fact about OpenAI and AI safety."

For ``` I'll change my mind about: "X" ``` options:

Options resolve YES if my mind was changed, either within this comment section or outside of it. "Changing my mind" doesn't require flipping from definite agreement to definite disagreement, but a gotcha about how something has a slight asterisk I hadn't noticed is not enough. If ambiguous, may, but rarely will, resolve to a percentage.

Resolves NO if/when I am sufficiently confident that my mind will not be changed in the next months such that leaving the option open would be overly distortionary bc of interest rates and such. There may be a better way to settle an option NO. I welcome anyone to propose a better alternative.

For ```Stronger (YES) or Weaker (NO) belief in X``` options:

Resolves YES if I end up having a significantly higher credence in the proposition represented by the letter X being true, and resolves NO if I have a significantly lower credence of the said proposition.

I won't bet on an option unless it's within a minute of its creation or its resolution. (I'll also try my best to respect things like, not buying through a limit order when this happens)

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ18
2Ṁ11
3Ṁ4
4Ṁ4
5Ṁ3
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy