Bartus I's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.35
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Bartus I bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
- This market resolves to NO if there's at least two people holding 157 YES shares, otherwise it resolves YES.NOṀ16
- This market resolves to NO if there's at least two people holding 157 YES shares, otherwise it resolves YES.NOṀ1
- This market resolves to NO if there's at least two people holding 157 YES shares, otherwise it resolves YES.NOṀ1