Bart's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.71
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Bart bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
- (M1000 subsidy!) Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (in April)NOṀ100
- (M1000 subsidy!) Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (in April)NOṀ100
- In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will the average response among all entrants be within the top 10% of entrants if scored as an entrant itself?YESṀ50
40%
50%
60%
80%