Levi is the creator of the market below. To avoid market creator moral hazard, I created this market and will resolve according to my fair judgement.
Resolve to Yes if Levi ate a spoonful of poop by the end of 2023 and posted video proof.
Resolve to No if Levi did not publish video proof of him eating a spoonful of poop by the end of 2023
Additional clarifications:
It has to be at least a table-spoon, non-topped
Tampered/AI generated video do not qualify
To ensure unbiased resolution, I welcome any manifold staff to overturn my resolution if they they my resolution is incorrect
https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-i-eat-a-spoonful-of-poop-by-th
@SG Also the entire purpose of a derivative market like this is to help people hedge against "exotic" resolutions on the base market.
@SG So then the beans are 100% cleaned of poop? Also if you resolve No for this, you will have to reverse the original bet.
@NotOvertillJoever The other market had a different creator who made their own resolution choice. This market had a creator who bailed on the site and....someone....had to decide.
@NotOvertillJoever Yes, exactly. Look at the criteria on this one, it's actually well done:
> To avoid market creator moral hazard, I created this market and will resolve according to my fair judgement.
> To ensure unbiased resolution, I welcome any manifold staff to overturn my resolution if they they my resolution is incorrect
The creator has specifically said Manifold Staff (SG) can have the final say, which is what happened. And this market is specifically here "In case Levi does something silly".
The norm on Manifold right now is that unless something is absolutely unambiguously wrong, overturning a creator's own resolution (Levi's resolution of his own market) is generally not done. So, it's entirely possible to have 2 markets on the same topic that resolve differently.
The actual criteria are usually important, and this one says it resolves on its own creator (SG in his absence), while the Levi version resolved on Levi's opinion instead.
It seems to me that this should resolve YES. There is no requirement that it come from a human or that it not be a packaged food. It seems to me the best case for NO is that civet coffee is only the partially digested beans and not everything that comes out of the civet. Does anyone have any counterarguments I might have missed?
@Jacy We have already said why this is ridiculous.
It wasn't poop. At most it was derived from it. That doesn't make it the same thing.
@Jacy Those coffee beans weren’t literally poop. Poop was involved in their production process, but the pile of poop from which the beans were retrieved is a different thing than the beans themselves.
The beans were processed from feces, but that doesn’t make the beans feces. Eg minerals, water, fiber, whatever else can be separated from feces. But when separated, each of those components are not feces! All together in their original form, yes, they would be feces. But separated they aren’t.
Wood is made of many things that can be processed and separated. If I collected carbon from wood, the carbon is not wood. It’s carbon. Before separating carbon from the wood, yes you could say that the carbon is a part of the wood.
The real trouble here is that there are Platonic Ideals that are compositions. And we’ve been arguing about what defines the platonic ideal.
Finally, a completely intuitive argument, you’d be way way happier stepping in a pile of these beans as opposed to a pile of poop. Are you really going to call that pile of beans poop?
@Jacy My argument is that if you asked 100 people to imagine someone eating a spoonful of shit, 99 would imagine a human eating human shit. Aside from that, the amount of true fecal matter in a spoonful of kopi luwak, let alone several spoonfuls, is very little. I think people here were most reasonably betting on someone eating some of their own shit, not having some exotic coffee (which is much more tolerable than eating actual shit).
If kopi luwak actually looked and tasted like shit, I’d perhaps say yes. But the coffee is physically and chemically altered so far from the original feces, it’s very akin to saying someone “ate a spoonful of sugar”, when in reality they took a shot of moonshine.
@nikki No, it isn't. It is coffee.
At the most, it is "made out of" poop, but it certainly is not poop.
Another example: the ISS process all human waste, including feces, to remove all water. This water goes back into the drinking water system. Is water that is removed from poop itself poop? Of course not. The coffee beans here are analogous to the water. Went in water, came out water, and was processed and cleaned before it could be consumed. Went in coffee, came out coffee, and was processed and cleaned before it could be consumed.
@AxelJacobsen You’ve described water going in and water going out but did not defined what feces is…in this case it’s everything other than your argument? lol
I ate potatoes and corn, my poop is brown and has bits of corn in it. What’s the poop? Are you saying I’m just eating potatoes if I removed the corn and some water?
@NotOvertillJoever Like, if you remove a component from something, that component is no longer the original thing
@AxelJacobsen That’s not true lmao. You’re basically going down the Theseus ship paradox.
@NotOvertillJoever No, you are the one doing that, by claiming that an extracted element is the original thing. By that argument everything is poop (and pretty much everything is everything else.)
@AxelJacobsen Yeah, this is semantics. And you saying the processed beans has no remnants of anything else straight out of the civet?
@NotOvertillJoever yes, "this is semantics," and the semantics of the word "poop" do not include the stuff he ate.
@AxelJacobsen So isn’t this it? If the processed beans aren’t equivalent of the beans prior to the civet eating it, then he’s still eating poop + beans.
@NotOvertillJoever I don't think so. The poop is still something different.
Another angle: The "Platonic Ideal" of poop is certainly not these coffee beans.