🚨 Will Levi Finkelstein eat a spoonful of poop by the end of 2023?🚨 M1000 subsidy💵, VIDEO PROOF🤳, ...
39
917
730
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Levi is the creator of the market below. To avoid market creator moral hazard, I created this market and will resolve according to my fair judgement.

Resolve to Yes if Levi ate a spoonful of poop by the end of 2023 and posted video proof.

Resolve to No if Levi did not publish video proof of him eating a spoonful of poop by the end of 2023

Additional clarifications:

  1. It has to be at least a table-spoon, non-topped

  2. Tampered/AI generated video do not qualify


To ensure unbiased resolution, I welcome any manifold staff to overturn my resolution if they they my resolution is incorrect

https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-i-eat-a-spoonful-of-poop-by-th

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Resolved correctly.

I still think SG should be delegated to resolve this one.

predicted YES

@Eliza Can this get resolved?

@NotOvertillJoever Try tagging SG. He resolved another market today.

predicted YES

@SG Please resolve.

@NotOvertillJoever Kopi luwak is not poop, so I'm inclined to resolve this no.

@SG Also the entire purpose of a derivative market like this is to help people hedge against "exotic" resolutions on the base market.

predicted YES

@SG So then the beans are 100% cleaned of poop? Also if you resolve No for this, you will have to reverse the original bet.

@NotOvertillJoever The other market had a different creator who made their own resolution choice. This market had a creator who bailed on the site and....someone....had to decide.

predicted YES

@Eliza Yes. They’re objectively the same criteria but have different resolutions?

@NotOvertillJoever Yes, exactly. Look at the criteria on this one, it's actually well done:

> To avoid market creator moral hazard, I created this market and will resolve according to my fair judgement.

> To ensure unbiased resolution, I welcome any manifold staff to overturn my resolution if they they my resolution is incorrect

The creator has specifically said Manifold Staff (SG) can have the final say, which is what happened. And this market is specifically here "In case Levi does something silly".

The norm on Manifold right now is that unless something is absolutely unambiguously wrong, overturning a creator's own resolution (Levi's resolution of his own market) is generally not done. So, it's entirely possible to have 2 markets on the same topic that resolve differently.

The actual criteria are usually important, and this one says it resolves on its own creator (SG in his absence), while the Levi version resolved on Levi's opinion instead.

predicted YES

@Eliza Very good response. Thanks

It seems to me that this should resolve YES. There is no requirement that it come from a human or that it not be a packaged food. It seems to me the best case for NO is that civet coffee is only the partially digested beans and not everything that comes out of the civet. Does anyone have any counterarguments I might have missed?

@Jacy We have already said why this is ridiculous.

It wasn't poop. At most it was derived from it. That doesn't make it the same thing.

predicted NO

@Jacy Those coffee beans weren’t literally poop. Poop was involved in their production process, but the pile of poop from which the beans were retrieved is a different thing than the beans themselves.

The beans were processed from feces, but that doesn’t make the beans feces. Eg minerals, water, fiber, whatever else can be separated from feces. But when separated, each of those components are not feces! All together in their original form, yes, they would be feces. But separated they aren’t.

Wood is made of many things that can be processed and separated. If I collected carbon from wood, the carbon is not wood. It’s carbon. Before separating carbon from the wood, yes you could say that the carbon is a part of the wood.

The real trouble here is that there are Platonic Ideals that are compositions. And we’ve been arguing about what defines the platonic ideal.

Finally, a completely intuitive argument, you’d be way way happier stepping in a pile of these beans as opposed to a pile of poop. Are you really going to call that pile of beans poop?

@Jacy My argument is that if you asked 100 people to imagine someone eating a spoonful of shit, 99 would imagine a human eating human shit. Aside from that, the amount of true fecal matter in a spoonful of kopi luwak, let alone several spoonfuls, is very little. I think people here were most reasonably betting on someone eating some of their own shit, not having some exotic coffee (which is much more tolerable than eating actual shit).

If kopi luwak actually looked and tasted like shit, I’d perhaps say yes. But the coffee is physically and chemically altered so far from the original feces, it’s very akin to saying someone “ate a spoonful of sugar”, when in reality they took a shot of moonshine.

predicted NO

It’s up to the gods now

predicted NO

By the way, ChatGPT was VERY annoyed by being forced to discuss this subject matter, although it did say that it should resolve NO.

bought Ṁ186 of NO

I think @Barker is no longer active. I’ll send this to the please-resolve channel soon. But I’m not sure of the etiquette? maybe we should wait until it closes?

bought Ṁ434 of NO

@AxelJacobsen OK Nikki and Levi beat me to it

bought Ṁ25 of NO

ChatGPT:

"If the bet specifically involved consuming actual feces, then eating Kopi Luwak wouldn't typically fulfill that condition, as the coffee beans, despite their unique processing, are not poop."

bought Ṁ5 of NO

I know this is probably Mana laundering but I’d like to see a Tom Pearl style vid out of this.

predicted YES

@Barker is Kopi luwak poop? If so, this resolves yes

@nikki No, it isn't. It is coffee.


At the most, it is "made out of" poop, but it certainly is not poop.

predicted NO

“Made out of” in the sense that poop was a part of the production process. But they went in coffee beans, came out coffee beans, were cleaned and packed, and sold in stores. But to call it poop would be incorrect.

predicted NO

Another example: the ISS process all human waste, including feces, to remove all water. This water goes back into the drinking water system. Is water that is removed from poop itself poop? Of course not. The coffee beans here are analogous to the water. Went in water, came out water, and was processed and cleaned before it could be consumed. Went in coffee, came out coffee, and was processed and cleaned before it could be consumed.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@AxelJacobsen You’ve described water going in and water going out but did not defined what feces is…in this case it’s everything other than your argument? lol

I ate potatoes and corn, my poop is brown and has bits of corn in it. What’s the poop? Are you saying I’m just eating potatoes if I removed the corn and some water?

predicted NO

@NotOvertillJoever Metabolic waste, no?

predicted NO

@NotOvertillJoever Like, if you remove a component from something, that component is no longer the original thing

predicted YES

@AxelJacobsen That’s not true lmao. You’re basically going down the Theseus ship paradox.

predicted NO

@NotOvertillJoever No, you are the one doing that, by claiming that an extracted element is the original thing. By that argument everything is poop (and pretty much everything is everything else.)

predicted YES

What? He’s picking apart the components of defecation. If it has passed through digestion, it’s poop. You can rename it all you want, it’s by definition poop as it has gone through the process.

bought Ṁ19 of NO

But then almost all water you drink is poop! Water is in poop, rejoins the water cycle, and then you drink it. Is water poop? No!

predicted NO

This is pedantic. If Levi ate the poop "fresh", straight out of the civet, then yes it would've been poop. If Levi titled this "Will Levi Finkelstein eat a spoonful of poop derivative by the end of 2023" then this would resolve yes. But he didn't. Poop derivative != poop!

predicted YES

@AxelJacobsen Yeah, this is semantics. And you saying the processed beans has no remnants of anything else straight out of the civet?

predicted YES

@AxelJacobsen If I have poop, then cook and process it, it's still poop.

predicted NO

I disagree. I think we just have to let the mods decide

predicted NO

@NotOvertillJoever I'm not saying that

predicted NO

@NotOvertillJoever yes, "this is semantics," and the semantics of the word "poop" do not include the stuff he ate.

predicted YES

@AxelJacobsen So isn’t this it? If the processed beans aren’t equivalent of the beans prior to the civet eating it, then he’s still eating poop + beans.

predicted NO

@NotOvertillJoever I don't think so. The poop is still something different.

Another angle: The "Platonic Ideal" of poop is certainly not these coffee beans.

predicted NO

I think my position is clear. We just have to leave it to the mods, and if they ask for more arguments, I'll come back, but other than that I have other things to do today than to argue about poo haha