Ben J. Smith's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.47
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Ben J. Smith bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- Will Raf Manji (The Opportunities Party candidate) win the Ilam electorate in the 2023 New Zealand general election?NOṀ40
- Will the Maine Secretary of State refuse to list Trump on the ballot in 2024 general election?NOṀ30
- Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?NOṀ25
30%
40%
- There will be a supreme court case about the 14th ammendment's ability to disqualify candidates before the 2024 electionYESṀ50
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy's poll numbers be higher by at least 1% a week after the 1st Republican debate?NOṀ50
- Will at least one judge find that Trump cannot run for president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?YESṀ25
50%
60%
70%
- Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?NOṀ100
- Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.005 by March 25?NOṀ100
- Will the "40 mile long convoy" have a meaningfully positive impact for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine by May 2022?NOṀ100
80%