Axel Netherwood's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.21
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Axel Netherwood bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
99%
- Will Vaush's video "Trump & Right Wing Anti-Trans Rhetoric Gets Scarier" reach 90k views or more by 3/09 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ60
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Chicago Bears in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?YESṀ45
- Will more than five Manifold For Charity causes earn more than $1,000 before March 2023?YESṀ30