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Since the creator has deleted their account, this market is now going to get resolved by mods and therefore should get clarifications and support from the mod team.
After some discussion on the discord, I've decided that "aid package" is clearly more specific than "aid". This market will resolve based on the supplemental aid package or a bill like it, not the NDAA.
@JackD Does this mean it will be resolved by mods if the account remains deleted? If so, would it just resolve N/A (assuming NDAA passes and no other Ukraine aid passes) since it seems ambiguous as to whether the NDAA counts?
@JackD Amazing. Why does this keep happening? We're actually a pretty nice community as far as most prediction markets go.
@Panfilo https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-heads-holiday-recess-long-list-left-undone/story?id=105663956
Still don’t know how it will play out or how it will resolve if it doesn’t get passed.
@parhizj I am not 90% on the senate passing it, but I am 90% on the House getting called back if they do. It’s bipartisan urgent military spending, after all.
@Panfilo I made a related market for that scenario:
https://manifold.markets/parhizj/us-house-of-representatives-no-long
@Panfilo I don’t know what the rules are exactly but this I think would require for the President to call a special session if they do hammer an agreement out in the senate. I don’t know if the speaker is obligated to agree or not, and he could always say that the agreement wasn’t good enough (wanted HR2 passed, not whatever watered down agreement was passed in the senate)
@AviS it’s late in the game but could you please confirm that this is asking about the supplemental aid package (and that the NDAA would not qualify). There is another question where this was or may have been just changed.
@parhizj Without a description I don't see why the current legislation wouldn't qualify just because it doesn't have package in the name.
@Panfilo AFAIK Almost all the funding for Ukraine has been appropriated through these supplementals.
The title says another Ukraine aid package. I interpreted that to mean the supplemental. This is why I am taking this and the other market to be so frustratingly confusing why it could be interpreted otherwise .
@parhizj You could be right but without qualifications in the title I just see the definitions as implicitly broad.
@Panfilo I actually reversed my position due to a convo about what counts as a "package" vs. just any aid or funding on discord.
