Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "YES" if Jose Luis Ricon is alive on the day that the globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration reaches 600 parts per million (ppm), and "NO" otherwise.

The official source for this measurement will be the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Monitoring Laboratory, specifically the monthly average data provided for the Mauna Loa Observatory, available at: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html.

If Jose Luis Ricon passes away before 600 ppm is reached, the market resolves to "NO". If the 600 ppm threshold is never reached, the market will resolve to "NO".

Background

Atmospheric CO2 levels are monitored globally to track climate change. As of early 2026, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are approximately 425–430 ppm. Projections for when levels might reach 600 ppm vary significantly depending on global emissions trajectories, decarbonization efforts, and natural carbon sink feedback loops. Jose Luis Ricon is a researcher and writer known for his work in metascience and longevity.

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