Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th District?
resolved Nov 8
The Effective Altruism movement usually stays out of politics, but here is a recent, highly-upvoted endorsement of donating to Carrick Flynn as a high-impact area: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Qi9nnrmjwNbBqWbNT/the-best-usd5-800-i-ve-ever-donated-to-pandemic-prevention Further reading: https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022 #EffectiveAltruism #Politics
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Uh I was wondering why this didn't resolve, thanks @NcyRocks !
I honestly wonder if this is underpriced now - the actual election is, what, six months away? The odds of the Dems needing a new candidate, them choosing the guy who came second in the primary, and then Flynn winning after all seem like they should be higher than 0.1% - at that rate, replacement candidates should win about twice every 10 years, which seems too rare (haven't seen any data though) I mean, it's pretty much academic at this point but that's what Manifold's for
@NcyRocks Unfortunately with Manifold's fee scheme, it would have to be at least a 10% chance of happening to buy YES profitably.
predicted YES
@BoltonBailey Not true! (Fees are included in the shares you receive when you bet. The fees are assessed as a percentage of the post-bet improbability times the bet amount, not on the gross amount. If you bet correctly, you can never lose money.)
@SG Help me understand then. From the "About" page: >>> If you bet M$100 on NO and the resulting probability without fees would be 10%, then you pay M$100 13% 10% = M$1.3. Consider the limit where the price movement is very small: Suppose the current probability is 10.0001% and I think it should be 10%. I make the M$100 bet on NO like the above, moving the probability from 10.0001% to 10%. I should receive about M$111.11... shares of NO without any fees, so I expect to make a profit of essentially nothing without fees. But with the $M1.3 fee, I lose money right?
predicted YES
@BoltonBailey Yes, that seems right. Right now though, if you buy M$1 of YES, your break-even probability is ~1/94 = 1.06% — much less than 10%.
OK; here's what a lot of you guys got wrong here: supporting meme candidates. I lost a lot of money on the Cawthorn market (and, ofc, I did support Cawthorn), but Cawthorn was not a meme candidate -he was a House incumbent with a pretty decent win record (winning in a massive landslide against a Trump-endorsed candidate in 2020) and rock solid MAGA credentials -and he only lost by 1.5 points rather than the absurd 18.8 points Flynn did. So let this be your lesson: meme candidates do not win primaries, especially Democratic primaries (Massie at least won the R primary multiple times).
No need to wait, market's at ~0% anyway
predicted NO
Surprised to see so many say the outcome was expected, when this was going at ~40% until a few days ago
Why is this trading at a *higher* percentage than him winning the primary? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-carrick-flynn-win-the-democrat
It's a D+3 district, and the person we're pushing is functionally an outsider. I maxed my donation, but 25%, what I bought down to, implying even odds on both the general and the primary, seems if anything optimistic.